Why Verstappen holds crucial advantage in Mexican GP fight

Max Verstappen has the benefit of an additional set of new medium compound tyres to use in the Mexico City Grand Prix, whilst his F1 rivals do not.

The Dutchman has used one fewer set of yellow-walled Pirellis to use than the likes of Carlos Sainz, who starts alongside him on pole, Lando Norris, Charles Leclerc and the Mercedes pair of George Russell and Lewis Hamilton.

It could prove critical in the race at the Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez if there is a safety car or red flag disruption.

The grand prix is expected to be a one-stop affair, which is the fastest way to the chequered flag, but any such intervention could push teams into considering the two-stopper.

Whilst not necessarily quicker on paper, for Verstappen, it provides options. He could decide to start on (used) softs and then move onto his two sets of mediums – or the remaining set of hard tyres available to him.

According to Pirelli, starting on the mediums and pitting onto the hard tyres is the optimal approach, with the reverse also viable.

The latter option would allow runners to go longer in the race, gain track position during the pit stop window, and enjoy a positive tyre off-set in the later stages.

It was a strategy employed by Alexander Albon and Esteban Ocon last season. However, they were also aided by the intervention of a safety car. Nevertheless, having qualified P14 and P15, both scored points.

The chance any of the top six opt for the same approach is slim, but Oscar Piastri and Sergio Perez, who line up P17 and P18, respectively, could defer to an alternative run plan as they seek to work their way through the field.

Last term, having qualified P17 himself, Norris started on soft tyres as part of a two-stop strategy. He finished fifth.

Elsewhere further down the order, the situation of Stake pair Valtteri Bottas and Zhou Guanyu is an interesting one.

Neither has a fresh set of medium or hard compound tyres available to them. The former has one new set of softs whilst his team-mate has two.

Look out for both to potentially be on a quirky or innovative strategy. In Bottas’ case in particular, it may scupper his best opportunity to score points all season. He starts P15 and is currently 23rd and last in the drivers’ standings.

It may ultimately bear no difference for Stake, who unsurprisingly appears slowest in long-run performance. The Swiss team is expected to be 1.4 seconds per lap slower than the pace-setting Ferraris.

Although, the Scuderia can expect a fight from the McLaren on Norris. The MCL38 is estimated to be roughly half-a-tenth of a second slower, with Red Bull the same gap further back.

Mercedes, meanwhile, is not expected to be in contention for victory. At two-tenths of a second down on race pace, it likely has too much of a void to bridge to the leading quartet.

Further back, Haas stands a good chance at remaining in the points, as Kevin Magnussen and Nico Hulkenberg can expect marginally the best pace from the midfield runners.