Max Verstappen clinched the drivers’ championship with two rounds to spare this year.
It was a much closer contest than last season. Verstappen claimed the 2023 title by winning 19 of the 22 grands prix. Red Bull were only beaten once that season, and it was clear anyone not in an RB19 was never going to win the title that year.
But this year Verstappen faced a tougher fight. Red Bull began the year in good shape and he won seven times in the first 10 races. But over the remaining dozen rounds Verstappen only picked up two more grand prix victories.
Nonetheless, by the Las Vegas Grand Prix, Verstappen was able to put his points tally mathematically beyond the reach of Lando Norris – the last driver who could beat him to the crown.
Afterwards Verstappen claimed that not only could he have won the title in Norris’s McLaren, which went on to win the constructors’ championship, but the Ferrari as well. Both teams finished ahead of Red Bull in the final standings for the season, so does his claim convince you?
For
Verstappen’s claim won backing from an unlikely source. Before the final two races McLaren Racing CEO Zak Brown said he was potentially quick enough to win in the third-fastest car.
The constructors’ championship suggests he was, as Red Bull ended the year third behind Ferrari and McLaren.
Norris and Leclerc both dropped points compared to their team mates at times during the season. Verstappen dropped none to Sergio Perez – except in the one race where his car let him down.
Against
The top points-scorers from McLaren and Ferrari were not convinced by Verstappen’s claim.
“Not possible,” claimed Norris, who fell up to 84 points behind Verstappen at one stage and ended the year 63 off the Red Bull. Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc said Verstappen’s claim was “maybe a stretch”. He finished the season 81 points off the world champion.
Red Bull ended the year third, but that also reflects on Perez having his worst season since he joined them. The RB20 was the quickest car over a single lap on average, albeit narrowly.
I say
Once the writing was on the wall for Norris in the championship piece I took a look at how many points he had potentially missed during the course of the year for different reasons. I concluded Norris was responsible for the majority of them – more so than misfortune or errors by his team – and he had easily given up enough to overcome his deficit to Verstappen (and this was before he squandered 16 more in Qatar).
The McLaren therefore looked quick enough to win the drivers’ championship in Verstappen’s hands. It would have required him to lose very few points over the course of the year, but there weren’t many examples of him doing that (Yas Marina was one notable exception). And remember Norris had now technical retirements – Verstappen had one and it occured when the Red Bull was at its strongest.
Leclerc only finished 18 points behind Verstappen in the championship, so on the face of it this looks do-able too: Close, but still realistic. Mercedes, however, were simply too far away too often.
But this is just mathematical theory. What about the reality of exchanging Perez for a Piastri or Sainz in the other car – would they have taken points off him and impaired his title-winning hopes? That happened to Norris and Leclerc, but not Verstappen.
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You say
Could Verstappen have won the world championship in a
Do you agree Verstappen could have won the 2024 championship in a McLaren?
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- Strongly disagree (0%)
- Slightly disagree (18%)
- Neither agree nor disagree (9%)
- Slightly agree (18%)
- Strongly agree (55%)
Total Voters: 11
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Do you agree Verstappen could have won the 2024 championship in a Ferrari?
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- Strongly disagree (10%)
- Slightly disagree (30%)
- Neither agree nor disagree (0%)
- Slightly agree (30%)
- Strongly agree (30%)
Total Voters: 10
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Do you agree Verstappen could have won the 2024 championship in a Mercedes?
- No opinion (0%)
- Strongly disagree (80%)
- Slightly disagree (0%)
- Neither agree nor disagree (10%)
- Slightly agree (10%)
- Strongly agree (0%)
Total Voters: 10
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