Does Norris have a chance of winning the 2024 F1 title?

Lando Norris’ final margin over Max Verstappen stood at a cavernous 22.896 seconds at the point the chequered flag lithely fluttered at the Dutch Grand Prix’s close. 

Of the season so far, this was now the biggest winning gap – almost half a second larger than Verstappen’s buffer over Sergio Perez at the Bahrain opener. It’s also the most commanding win since Verstappen’s Hungary 2023 triumph, a 33-second chasm that separated him and Norris over a year ago.

To further elaborate upon his point, Norris managed to capture the fastest lap of the race to knock eight points out of his championship arrears to Verstappen. There’s “just” 70 points between them, which lays somewhere between a gulf and a canyon to overcome across the final nine races in the title fight.

Nobody has turned around a championship lead gap that large in such a comparatively short space of time. It’s not that it can’t be done mathematically, of course, but it’d be a vastly unlikely comeback that would arguably provide an even bigger shock than the announcement of Lewis Hamilton’s move to Ferrari.

But does Norris have a hope in hell of achieving such implausible odds? With apologies to Ian Betteridge and his law of headlines, the answer is ‘yes’ – only accompanied with a ‘but’.  

Pole man Lando Norris, McLaren F1 Team, debriefs with Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing

Photo by: Sam Bloxham / Motorsport Images

The permutations are thus: Norris’ engineer Will Joseph, in his pleas for his driver to let Piastri through at the Hungarian Grand Prix, stated that Norris would “need the team” to assist in his plans for a title – that he could not hope to win it on his lonesome. And that assertion would be correct; Norris indeed needs Piastri to assist him with any hopes of a 2024 title victory. McLaren needs Piastri to start acting as a Verstappen-focused disruptor across the majority of the upcoming races, as his presence in the top three is a prerequisite to Norris closing that 70-point lead.

Norris could win all nine races left on the calendar and not have enough in the bank if Verstappen finishes second in all of them. Assuming neither driver achieves a fastest lap, Norris would end up with 450 points as his final tally, seven short of Verstappen. With eight or nine fastest laps, Norris can make up the arrears, but this supposition stands upon shaky ground. Would Red Bull blink if it needed to box Perez and sacrifice track position to snatch the fastest lap point? Absolutely not; Red Bull usually considers the second car expendable in such cases…

In that instance, Piastri needs to sit between Norris and Verstappen at least three times to make the “win everything” strategy count. And, if Norris has an off-weekend and “only” finishes second on one occasion, Piastri must ‘interlope’ at least another two or three times to make the difference.

It’s also in Norris’ own hands here. If he doesn’t win another race this year, and theoretically finishes second in every race from now to Abu Dhabi, Verstappen can only finish as high as fifth to ensure Norris takes the title. Even if Red Bull has lost its advantage, it has not regressed to the point where even podiums elude it.

And, of course, the other teams cannot be relied upon. Mercedes and Ferrari will remain competitive, and will likely have events at which they are closer to McLaren and Red Bull compared to others. They’ll have their own periods of overlapping between Norris and Verstappen, as they did in the first phase of the season, and so McLaren would need to mitigate their influence on its own results. 

Of course, letting them interfere with Red Bull would be sufficient for McLaren’s purposes – but leaving things to chance cannot guarantee McLaren and Norris a title. To a degree, the Woking squad has its championship fortunes in its own hands – it has a car that can legitimately beat Red Bull on pace, and the drivers to do it with. 

Pole man Lando Norris, McLaren F1 Team, celebrates in Parc Ferme

Photo by: Andrew Ferraro / Motorsport Images

Norris proved at Zandvoort that he didn’t need perfection to win races, as another clutch fumble into the first corner was actually of little significance. Instead, an industrious bout of early race management and foresight into Verstappen’s relative pace ensured that the overtake opportunity could be fortuitously timed long before the round of pitstops. Although it didn’t completely end Norris’ current starting malaise, it at least takes the pressure off. The starts don’t seem quite so important if you know you can do the business later.

Even if Norris is the paragon of perfection and wins every single race between now and Christmas, he can’t win the title unless Verstappen and Red Bull endure a series of spectacular blunders that melt away at the points gap. McLaren must ensure that both drivers are hitting the heights made possible by its vastly improved car and not be afraid to make difficult calls if the situation demands it.

As Joseph opined to Norris at the Hungaroring, with five laps remaining: “The way to win a championship is not by yourself. You’re going to need Oscar and you’re going to need the team.”

Might that be the mantra that McLaren unites behind in its mission to deliver an earlier-than-expected championship triumph? It’s certainly fitting, and it demonstrates a parity between team-mates that Red Bull cannot hope to replicate. And, when it comes to the crunch, this might be the difference. Yes – with a but: Piastri’s involvement being the caveat.