Is the junior pathway to F1 actually ‘broken’?

A common complaint among fans of Formula 1’s main feeder series, Formula 2 and Formula 3, is that drivers rarely get the chance to progress into race seats in the top tier. Championship-winning talents have often been forced to sit on the sidelines in a reserve capacity and wait until an established name retires.

This was especially evident in the off-season last year, when there were no changes to the F1 grid whatsoever. But fast forward 12 months, and the grid will have a very different look for 2025, with at least four fresh faces set to feature. What those already confirmed – Andrea Kimi Antonelli (Mercedes), Jack Doohan (Alpine), Oliver Bearman (Haas) and Gabriel Bortoleto (Sauber) – all have in common is their time spent climbing the established ladder.

With this in mind, it should be acknowledged that this piece may have looked somewhat different were it written at the same time last term, such is the nature of recency bias. To come to a conclusion on the matter, Autosport spoke to a variety of sources with in-depth experience of the system to consider their opinions.

The boss

As the CEO of F2 and F3, Bruno Michel will always put a positive spin on the topic of whether the system works in its current guise. But a key factor in assessing whether the system is broken is understanding the metric by which success, and equally failure, is measured.

Explaining this, Michel tells Autosport: “At the end of the day, the most important thing for us is to make sure that the drivers that will be in Formula 1 are ready for Formula 1. That’s our job and that is where you can see that the pyramid is working because when drivers are getting to Formula 1, they are ready.”

While it is largely true that drivers making the step up have been ready for F1, it remains the case that not all champions or other top talent are able to make the leap for one reason or another.

One such example was arguably Logan Sargent, who struggled at Williams before being dropped midway through 2024 with Franco Colapinto stepping up from the junior category.

Believing that the difference in car specification and philosophy from F2 to F1 at that point had played a part – F2 having then run the same car since 2019 and F1 shifting to ground effect technology in 2022 – the American told Autosport: “F2 is a great series that has great drivers, but I think the gap between the cars is probably a bit too big for what it should be.

F2 boss Michel says drivers who do get the chance to race in F1 are well-prepared, but the problem is more down to limited opportunities

Photo by: Simon Galloway / Motorsport Images

“There are just so many more fine details in F1, and there’s just so many more things that add into performance than just getting in the car and driving like you do in F2.”

Given the disparity in machinery, Liam Lawson’s move to Super Formula – a category with greater technical complexity – was needed before he was deemed F1-ready.

After the bizarre 2023 winter which saw no off-season driver changes whatsoever – a first for F1 – as difficult as the current Dallara F2 car is to get to grips with, the closer-to-F1 philosophy has clearly showcased certain attributes in drivers that bosses in the top tier needed to see in order to confidently give immediate promotions up the ladder.

F2’s previous title winners from 2023 and 2022, Theo Pourchaire and Felipe Drugovich, are without permanent race seats in any category, while even Oscar Piastri was forced to spend a year on the sidelines at Alpine before his messy switch to McLaren alongside Lando Norris for 2023.

“Formula 1 has [for now] got 20 seats and some years there are seats available, and some years there aren’t, it’s very simple,” Michel adds. “We have had years in the past where there are three drivers going to Formula 1 in the same season – it was [George] Russell, Norris and [Alex] Albon [in 2019]. The year before, we had Charles Leclerc, two years after, we had Oscar Piastri, so when there is a seat available.”

Of Pourchaire’s situation, he says: “I would be happy to see him with a full-time seat. Right now, he doesn’t have one, so sometimes it’s the career choice of the drivers as well and I cannot interfere with that. They do what they want to do.”

“Some of them have decided that it is less of a risk to take an experienced driver than to take a new one”
Bruno Michel

However, on the specific examples of Pourchaire and Drugovich, it should be noted that the duo took three and four years respectively to reach the F2 summit, a timeframe that is not often looked on favourably by F1 teams, which require drivers that can come in and make an immediate impact.

While only Bortoleto – or Isack Hadjar should Red Bull elect to place him at RB – stands a chance of being promoted to F2 with the title in their pocket of the 2025 graduates, all have shown race-winning pace and an ability to quickly adapt to new machinery. In the fast-paced world of modern F1 where the rewards are so great, there is simply no longer time for a learning year while occupying a race seat.

The number of graduates making the full-time leap immediately from F2 to F1 next season is significant. Michel concedes young drivers need “luck” on their side to be in a position to make the switch as the market “regulates”, with some of the old guard leaving to create space.

The immediate success of young drivers such as Piastri and Bearman, in his three one-off outings at Ferrari and Haas, appears to have given teams greater confidence in up-and-coming stars rather than relying on the ‘safe’ experienced hands, with new faces set to feature from the front of the grid to the back in 2025.

The 2023 F2 champion Theo Pourchaire will be a reserve driver for the Peugeot WEC squad in 2025

Photo by: Peugeot Sport

“It’s a balance and at some points, it’s true, there are some drivers that are not so exciting for F1 teams and they prefer to go for experienced drivers,” Michel reflects. “But when you have a young guy arriving and being extremely promising, OK, maybe he will cost you a few points in his first season because it is his first season.

“But [Fernando] Alonso started at one point, Lewis [Hamilton] started at one point – they all did. I remember Max [Verstappen]’s first season in Formula 1 was not so easy.

“Since a position in the [constructors’] championship is worth quite a lot of money, they want to make sure that they optimise their chance to get a strong position and some of them have decided that it is less of a risk to take an experienced driver than to take a new one.

“But this also has a limit, and at some point, something like what Ollie did in Jeddah [happens] and [he] made one-third of the F1 grid look old.”

The team view

In the second tier alone, Prema boss Rene Rosin has seen six drivers progress to F1 since his squad joined the grid of F2’s forerunner GP2 in 2016. This number will grow to eight next term, when Bearman and Antonelli land their full-time seats. In fact, one-quarter of the 2024 grid will have graduated from the Prema GP2/F2 effort.

But given the hit-and-miss nature of the driver market in recent years and with the current window appearing exceptional given the lack of movement in previous years, it is fair to ask Rosin outright if the system could be considered broken.

“To say that it is broken is a big, big word,” he replies. “I think in principle, the system works. But of course, we always have the question of time as there is not always space in Formula 1.

“You have drivers that have multiple-year contracts, and if every year you need to continue replacing them, it is not possible. So it’s just a question of timing.

“There are some drivers not in Formula 1 that deserve to be there. But more of the issue is a question of timing, as there are not always places available. With 20 cars in Formula 1, it is quite difficult that every year you can find spaces.

“There are years like three, four years ago when you have spaces and years where you have none. But of course, this is not a sign that the system is broken.

This year’s Prema F2 drivers, Antonelli and Bearman, will both have full-time F1 seats next year

Photo by: Sam Bloxham / Motorsport Images

“Saying the system is broken, no. I think we see that it is working pretty well from Formula 4, Formula 3, Formula 2 and Formula 1, and all the drivers that are passing through are ready to jump into Formula 1.”

The drivers

We now come to the most important people in the conversation, the drivers, for it is their career that could ultimately fly or flop based on the health of the existing system. At this stage, it should be noted that all 20 existing F1 drivers have featured in F2, F3 or the equivalent that was around at the time of their junior career (Fernando Alonso is the only incumbent on the grid who raced in Formula 3000, the predecessor to GP2). Like it or not, this is a sign of a successful system – a view that McLaren’s Piastri shares.

While Max Verstappen did not feature in either F2 or F3, European F3 and GP3 combined ahead of the 2019 season to create F3 so, while not on the F1 support bill, he still featured on the same pathway.

“F2 and F3 are very competitive with plenty of talented drivers on the grid so that naturally pushes and drives you,” he tells Autosport. “That competition is the biggest thing. Racing on certain F1 race weekends also helps and allows you to showcase what you can do around the same circuit. From a racing perspective, it introduces you to elements like driving on different tyre compounds throughout a weekend.”

“It’s an exceptional series, providing so much opportunity on the main stage…there’s no hiding away from anything” Jack Doohan

Reflecting on his year out of racing in a reserve capacity with Alpine, he adds: “F1 is a different beast in terms of all the off-track elements but my year as reserve driver gave me the chance to see that side of things, which was helpful. On-track, it’s different machinery with different demands and you have to be prepared for that.

“Everyone has their own pathway but I am obviously proud of my journey and success in the junior categories and delighted that it led me to F1, which was always the dream. I still keep a close eye on F2 and F3 races now.”

Doohan will make his F1 debut in Abu Dhabi this weekend as a precursor to a full-time race seat next year. The Australian spent two years in each of F3 and F2, finishing second overall in his final campaign in the former, while managing third in the latter last season.

Despite taking 10 race wins across the combined four campaigns – four of the six in F2 coming in feature races – Doohan’s F1 hopes had appeared to many as slim to none before the drastic shakeup this year, something that has given him a rounded opinion on what the series offer.

Like Piastri, Doohan will also contest his rookie season in F1 after a year as Alpine’s reserve driver

Photo by: Simon Galloway / Motorsport Images

“It’s tough,” he explains. “Formula 1 is something that is so difficult to get into and so easy to get out of. You can spend – like me – seven years to get in from the moment you step into a single-seater car. Six years of racing to get into Formula 1 and if you’re not performing, like we’ve seen with even Nyck [de Vries] and other drivers, you can be out in a matter of races.

“So it’s no easy feat but Formula 3 and Formula 2 definitely, without them, I wouldn’t have hit reality, I wouldn’t have had to literally hit rock bottom multiple times to bounce back and really get me to where I am today.

“It’s an exceptional series, providing so much opportunity on the main stage. There’s no hiding away from anything. Everything is seen and when you’re performing, it’s the world’s best thing. But when you’re not, you wish you could just hide away, but the reality is that you have to face those fears and take the good with the bad. It really just shapes you into enabling us to get ready for this step, which I’m so grateful that all that has paid off.”

Asked just how the two championships prepare drivers in a structured way that builds towards F1, he says: “Alright, you don’t get the pit stops in F3, but you get a 30-car field fighting for one piece of track in qualifying with all the drivers wanting to have a three-second gap between cars to have a bit of clear air. It’s just not going to happen.

“So that shapes you, getting ready for traffic management, finding position, being able to get the car ready and the tyres ready in that out and warm lap while having to stop and slow down to 30kph to find that track position that you need and then make sure that you have the front tyres ready for Turn 1.

“It’s putting you in uncomfortable circumstances and difficult environments, in which you have to excel if you want to perform and qualify well. This gets you ready for something that, actually, when you get to Formula 1, it’s more straightforward when you have tyre warmers and 20 cars.

“I could go plenty more into depth but the pyramid, the ladder, the way they’ve structured it, the way it’s performed and is supposed to be taken is exceptional.”

Autosport sought to speak with both Drugovich and Pourchaire to get their thoughts on the system after so far missing out on F1 seats, but neither was willing to speak on the topic.

De Vries finally landed a full-time seat in F1 four years after winning the 2019 F2 title, but was dropped after just 10 grands prix in 2023

Photo by: Simon Galloway / Motorsport Images

Newly crowned-F3 champion Leonardo Fornaroli, who will race for the Invicta F2 team in 2025, tells Autosport: “They are two very good series. You are learning a lot driving the F2 cars, especially on the race management and tyre management, which in Formula 1 is super-important. And next year, we will have the pitstop as well – a first time for me – so it will be a new thing to learn and I can’t wait for this.”

Does Cadillac change things?

F1 has had just 20 seats available since Manor’s departure at the end of 2016. This number is a far cry from years gone by, when pre-qualifying was needed to whittle the entries down to 30 cars that would battle for 26 places on the starting grid.

While expecting a return of those heady days is unrealistic, recently a deal in principle was agreed that will see Cadillac join as an 11th team for 2026, adding two further seats into the mix.

It is all good and well being able to suggest that something is broken or, at least, does not function as well as it could do, but the difficult thing is finding ways to improve the system

Speaking ahead of the recent Qatar weekend, American F2 driver Jak Crawford spoke with measured excitement about the opportunities this could create.

“I would hope that with the addition of a new Formula 1 team, of course, there are only two more seats available but that is quite a lot for F1 to add two more seats,” the Aston Martin junior remarked. “So that’s two more drivers that will be either moving up [or across].

“It’s just two more seats that are available for F2 and F3 drivers. Of course, we’re going to have a lot of rookies in F1 next year from F2 but the previous year, there was only Logan [Sargeant], so hopefully, we’ll see that putting a lot more Formula 2 drivers up on the Formula 1 grid.”

While it is a nice thought that both seats will be open to drivers climbing the ladder, it is likely that only one position would be open to a rookie, with an experienced challenger placed in the lead role. With Mario Andretti – a newly appointed board member of General Motor’s racing programme – stating that signing IndyCar driver Colton Herta is a “priority”, it could well be that neither position is open to those on the well-trodden pathway.

Two more seats will open up when Cadillac joins the grid in 2026, but one could be for IndyCar ace Herta leaving fewer chances for F2/F3 graduates

Photo by: Cadillac Communications

What could be improved?

It is all well and good to suggest that something is broken or, at least, does not function as well as it could do. But the more difficult thing is finding ways to improve the system.

While compiling this somewhat lengthy project, Autosport asked interviewees where such gains could be made, but there were few suggestions until we spoke with current F2 championship leader Bortoleto.

He said: “I’m not sure I love the sprint race system. I think it makes the weekend great, it’s more fun, but maybe change the sprint race to make it the feature race on Saturday.

“At the end of the day, a lot of things can happen – you do quali, you need to make your car as fast as possible and you go straight to the feature race with no knowledge of the sprint race before, so you need to go without the experience.

“I would maybe switch sides, so do the opposite with sprint on Sunday and the feature on Saturday – or maybe do two qualifyings and two races.”

Under the current system in both F2 and F3, the sprint races feature a partially reversed grid, giving drivers the opportunity to either showcase their ability to lead from the front or fight through the pack – an experience the feature race would give the opposite of.

But on tracks where overtaking is difficult, although it develops more skills in preparation for F1, it can alter the championship picture drastically.

“I never stopped to think about this, but that is maybe something I would change,” Bortoleto adds. “Because the sprint race can still give you a lot of points, and there are some tracks that it is impossible to overtake on, like Monaco.”

On a Saturday F2 drivers will contest a sprint race, where the top 10 from qualifying will start in the opposite order – in F3 it is the top 12

Photo by: Mark Sutton / Motorsport Images

Autosport says

When setting out to produce this feature earlier in the year, this writer was of the mindset that appears to be widely shared, at least by those vocal on social media, that the system is either broken or is in need of some tweaking at the very least. But then the F1 changes for 2025 happened, and suddenly the garden looks green once again.

Neither Michel nor Rosin were ever going to speak ill of the system that they both work hard on in their respective capacities, so there was some reading between the lines required when speaking to both.

But it ultimately cannot be denied that with 22 F2 drivers, 20 existing F1 talents and a handful of others from around the world all vying for the limited seats on the grid, having a huge shuffle to accommodate the top F2 drivers each year is simply never going to happen.

Even with Cadillac’s arrival, opportunities are not suddenly going to become as plentiful as some would like to think. Even adding a 12th team would potentially ease things for one year, before the inevitable backlog becomes quickly evident once again.

But turn the conversation around and you are faced with a different question. Is it really such a bad thing that there is too much top-level talent for F1 to field?

The answer is a categorical no. In football, the performance level in the Premier League has risen exponentially since its inception in 1992, with the overflow of talent benefitting the lower English leagues and competitions around Europe.

Return to motorsport, and if drivers are unable to gain an F1 seat, they will look to IndyCar, the World Endurance Championship, Formula E or any number of other top-level competitions to gain opportunities and improve the level across the board – something that should be celebrated.

So finally, is the pyramid system broken? No. Is it perfect? No. But is it as close to perfect as we’re going to get? Pretty much.