Andrea Kimi Antonelli

Take a step back in time to January 2024 and tell yourself that in a year’s time you’ll know that Lewis Hamilton has moved from Mercedes to Ferrari, Carlos Sainz is at Williams, Liam Lawson has landed a Red Bull seat, and a fellow called Franco Colapinto (did you even hear of him back then?) is in line for one of the Alpine seats after having competed in nine grands prix at the end of last season.

What a difference a year makes.

Formula 1 sometimes produces snooze fests on race Sundays, but it’s always full of craziness, at least off the track – so you can almost never rule anything out. Here are some wild predictions from the fans that have a good chance of not looking so wild a year from now.

Verstappen won’t be a championship contender this year

Sorry, what? To imagine that the driver who dominated F1 in 2022 and 2023 will not even be in contention for the championship is difficult. But is it really so unlikely?

Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing

Photo by: Red Bull Content Pool

No question, even with arguably the third-fastest car last year, Verstappen was able to score consistently and didn’t even allow Lando Norris to close the championship gap in the second half of 2024. But the new Red Bull looks incredibly similar to last year’s – and visually, at least, some of the rival teams’ cars represent major developments.

There are a lot of ifs in this equation, but what if Ferrari, Mercedes and McLaren make a bigger step forward than Red Bull? Verstappen is certainly a great driver, but will he be able to compensate if the gap gets too big?

The prospect of the Dutchman not being involved in a title fight still sounds too unrealistic, but 12 months ago it looked like 2024 would be as easy as the previous two seasons.

Alonso’s 33rd victory

Did you hear Lando Norris say that it won’t be just the top four teams that win races this year? As bold as it sounds, he has a valid point. The gaps tend to shrink when F1 keeps the same regulations for several years – and if nothing anomalous happens, we’ll definitely see some close racing at the front. And maybe it won’t just be McLaren, Ferrari, Red Bull and Mercedes fighting it out. If so, who better to bet on for a surprise victory than Fernando Alonso?

Fernando Alonso on the podium in Sao Paulo in 2023

Photo by: Andy Hone / Motorsport Images

Yes, Aston Martin clearly struggled last year – the string of podiums from early 2023 already feels like a long time ago. But back then, Alonso was just one strategic decision away from winning at Monaco: had the team put him on intermediates on lap 54, he could have already secured victory number 33.

Lawrence Stroll doesn’t back down – he just keeps upping the ante. Sooner or later, Aston Martin’s impressive team of engineers will have to get to the bottom of what has stalled the team’s progress over the past year and a half. Plus, Adrian Newey is due to join at the beginning of March, and maybe – just maybe – the genius will casually point them in the right direction for car development.

It will probably take more than just: “Oh, guys, this part should be 2mm higher and that’ll give you 20 extra points of downforce”. But Newey has long proven to the F1 world that he alone can make a difference.

Lawson and Tsunoda to swap places

Given Christian Horner and Helmut Marko’s reluctance to even consider putting Yuki Tsunoda behind the wheel of one of Red Bull’s cars, it’s almost unimaginable that the Japanese driver will end up as one of the team’s drivers. It was only last December that Tsunoda was offered a test with Red Bull – apparently after the team had already decided on its 2025 line-up – and now it’s almost unthinkable that he will ever be presented with such an opportunity again. Outperforming the likes of Nyck de Vries, Daniel Ricciardo and Liam Lawson clearly wasn’t enough for Tsunoda to convince his bosses that he was up to the task of being a top team driver.

Liam Lawson and Yuki Tsunoda

Photo by: Lubomir Asenov / Motorsport Images

However, crazy things have happened with Red Bull’s driver line-up in the past. Sacking, swapping and promoting drivers mid-season is Marko and Horner’s habit, so is it completely out of the question that Tsunoda will get his shot?

You don’t have to think too hard about the circumstances that might force Red Bull to at least consider swapping Lawson for Tsunoda. The New Zealander was moved to the main team after just 11 races in F1 – and there’s still a chance he could repeat the fate of Pierre Gasly, who was sent back to Faenza after just half a season with Red Bull Racing. If Lawson’s season turns out to be as bad as Sergio Perez’s last, the team chiefs may be left with no choice.

Antonelli to break Verstappen’s record as youngest winner

It’s a tall order – not just because of the lack of evidence that Mercedes will be able to win races this year and Antonelli’s inexperience, but also because Kimi only has three attempts to break Verstappen’s record as the youngest grand prix winner.

Andrea Kimi Antonelli

Photo by: Sam Bloxham / Motorsport Images

The Dutchman won the Spanish Grand Prix, his first race for Red Bull Racing, at the age of 18 years and 228 days. As a result, Antonelli’s chance of surpassing that achievement will expire after the Japanese Grand Prix at the beginning of April. Furthermore, no rookie has won a race in their debut season since Lewis Hamilton in 2007 (with the exception of Oscar Piastri’s sprint victory in Qatar in 2023). Even for the eventual world champion it took six races to reach this milestone.

A lot will have to go right for Antonelli to win one of the first three races of the season. But Toto Wolff wouldn’t be giving the young Italian a seat in the car if he didn’t believe in his potential. How quickly he can adapt to F1 remains one of the biggest questions ahead of 2025 – but what if he is indeed a once-in-a-generation talent, as the Mercedes boss clearly believes, and stuns the F1 world in his very first races?

Sainz to bring Williams back to the podium

James Vowles’ plan to take Williams back to the top is in full swing. Ditch the Excel spreadsheets – check. Hire a top driver – check. Secure a huge sponsorship deal – check.

He was clear last year: 2025 is not a priority for his team. In fact, he’d rather sacrifice the final season before F1 enters a new era in 2026 than jeopardise the future. However, Williams made real progress throughout last season and begins the new campaign with a car that was born in a much better environment than its predecessor and is at least not suffering from excess weight.

Carlos Sainz, Williams FW47

Photo by: Williams

Can Sainz make the difference? Alex Albon was showered with compliments during the time he shared a garage with Nicholas Latifi and Logan Sargeant, but who can rule out the idea that he didn’t always get the absolute maximum out of the car? Now Williams has a proven race winner. In a crazy race – and in a season of 24 rounds, some are sure to be chaotic – you can count on Sainz to keep his nose clean and come up with something special.

Drivers to strike against FIA

Back in 1982, Formula 1 drivers were so fed up with the organisation now known as the FIA that they went on strike and locked themselves in a hotel ballroom during the South African Grand Prix. They played games, told stories and Elio de Angelis entertained the group with some piano jams…

It’s hard to gauge whether Mohammed Ben Sulayem and the FIA are close to reaching the same level of discontent among grand prix drivers as Jean-Marie Balestre and FISA did some 40 years ago – but there is clearly some form of frustration in their ranks, especially in light of the recent news about swearing fines. Repeat offenders face not only financial penalties (which are quite hefty!) but also a one-month suspension and a deduction of championship points – and that’s pretty serious. The thought that a casual F-word dropped in an interview could affect the title fight is rather uncomfortable.

Mohammed Ben Sulayem, President, FIA, with Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing

Photo by: Zak Mauger / Motorsport Images

The grand prix drivers have already shown their unity by taking the decisive step of creating a joint Instagram account (an unprecedented move!). What comes next is hard to predict.

Just imagine: someone like Max Verstappen (name chosen randomly) finds himself on the verge of a third offence and punishment in the form of points deduction, say before the Austrian Grand Prix – but instead of heading to the stewards’ room, he rallies the other drivers to go on strike and they lock themselves up in, say, Helmut Marko’s Hotel Steirerschlössl? There’s no shortage of those who could play the piano on the current grid.

Bearman to beat Ocon comfortably

That doesn’t even sound so wild… All the F1 rookies of 2025 will have a difficult task going up against experienced teammates. But it’s probably Ollie Bearman who stands the best chance of actually beating his garage neighbour.

On paper, Ocon, a race winner with almost 10 years of F1 experience, would appear to be the clear number one driver at Haas – given Bearman’s lack of experience. But the young Briton has already demonstrated his speed and ability to learn quickly. Defeating Nico Hulkenberg in qualifying in Baku and then scoring a point in the race was excellent proof of his quality as a driver – and even more impressive than his infamous Jeddah performance.

Ayao Komatsu and Oliver Bearman, Haas F1 Team

Photo by: Zak Mauger / Motorsport Images

Ayao Komatsu believes that Bearman is a future Ferrari driver. And while that’s a nice compliment from a boss, it’s also a statement of expectations: any driver who wants to drive a red Formula 1 car one day shouldn’t just aim to beat any of their team-mates – that has to be their only goal.

Perez to return before end of season

The four-year stint (or maybe just the last couple of seasons, to be fair) has really damaged the Mexican’s reputation. At times, he looked hopeless in the second Red Bull – and that impression was only exacerbated by Max Verstappen’s brilliance. But is this really the Sergio Perez we knew from his Force India days? Perhaps the toll of sharing a garage with a generational talent has simply been too great – and in different circumstances, he could rediscover some of his old speed and tenacity.

For now, as Perez enjoys time with his family and travels the world for pleasure rather than work, it’s hard to imagine him back on the grid. But F1 has seen its fair share of comebacks in the past – even from those who had been written off. After all, who would have thought that Daniel Ricciardo would swallow his pride and return to race for his former Toro Rosso team after a stint with McLaren?

Can Sergio Perez get back to F1?

Photo by: Red Bull Content Pool

Would Christian Horner organise a tyre test for another of his former drivers in July? And if Isack Hadjar is as much slower than Yuki Tsunoda as Nyck de Vries was, could there be an opening? You could say there’s too much bad blood between Horner and Perez at the moment, but don’t forget Ricciardo left Red Bull to sign with Cyril Abiteboul, who seemed to annoy Horner almost as much as Toto Wolff! You never know…

Hulkenberg to qualify on front row with Sauber

Nico Hulkenberg has always been a strong qualifier, but it was during his two-year stint with Haas that he really showcased that skill. The German’s ability to put a lap together on demand is nothing short of extraordinary – and some of his Saturday performances deserve some serious praise. Remember him qualifying second in Canada in 2023?

He’s moving to a team that, on paper, looks like favourites to finish last in the constructors’ championship, but does that preclude some qualifying highlights?

Nico Hulkenberg, Stake F1 Team

Photo by: Sauber

Sauber also improved its car towards the end of last year, and in Abu Dhabi Valtteri Bottas made it to Q3, setting a time just 0.4s off the front row! Hulkenberg was fourth in the same session. If the field is indeed closer this year, the German could really raise some eyebrows.

Is it too hard to imagine him putting his Sauber on the front row in mixed conditions? Definitely not. It’s not like we’re talking about him getting a podium, right?

Doohan to complete full season with Alpine

Let’s just hope Jack Doohan hasn’t been reading the motorsport press over the winter – because if he has, he must be feeling immense pressure. Too many in the paddock are convinced that the Australian’s days at Alpine are numbered – and that translates into tons of articles suggesting that Doohan’s only job is to warm the seat for Franco Colapinto.

The reasons for such speculation are clear: the Argentinean wouldn’t have left Williams if he wasn’t hoping to get into one of the Alpine race cars in the near future. And the news of the team signing up sponsors from his homeland only adds fuel to the fire.

Doohan doesn’t need to read the press to be concerned. The facts are enough.

Jack Doohan, Alpine F1 Team, in cockpit

Photo by: Steven Tee / Motorsport Images

But guess what, he’s still starting the season alongside Pierre Gasly – and as long as he’s in that seat, his destiny (you’d like to believe it!) is in his hands. A strong performance in such circumstances could really boost the Australian’s image and secure not only a full season with Alpine, but a long career at the pinnacle of motorsport.

What a story that would be!