Sainz knows he has “less to lose” than title rivals in F1’s longest run to turn one · RaceFans

If there is one statistic that encapsulates just how competitive and unpredictable 2024 has been over the final two-thirds of the season, it is that not only have there been seven separate grand prix winners, but that five of them have had multiple victories.

Carlos Sainz Jnr already has a grand prix victory to his name this season, taking a memorable win in the third round in Australia.

The Ferrari driver, who has just five rounds left at the team, was already feeling confident about his prospects after he ended Friday as the fastest driver. Unsurprisingly, Sainz was equally buoyed about his chances of taking another win before he departs Maranello at the end of the season – but there was one major concern for him heading into Sunday.

“I know my race pace should be good,” Sainz said after qualifying. “Probably the most difficult thing will be the run down into turn one and starting on pole with a slipstream. But I think you can still defend, you can still make it stick into turn one starting on pole and that will be my target tomorrow.”

Behind Sainz, championship leader Max Verstappen dealt another vital blow in his ongoing war with Lando Norris by beating the McLaren driver to the front row. But despite this, Verstappen admitted he “doesn’t expect miracles” about Red Bull’s race pace compared to their rivals – they have clearly been half a step behind Ferrari and McLaren in the last two grands prix.

Norris himself insisted that he was “happyish” with third, despite heading Q1 and Q2. Despite McLaren having been the strongest across so many recent Sundays, Norris is unsure whether Ferrari will have the edge over them today.

“I don’t have the confidence to say, ‘yes, we can just beat them on pace’”, Norris admitted. “Like today, not on their level. But Sunday’s another day. We’ll try our best, but I don’t think we have the pace comparing to them at the minute.”

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Weather

The tens of thousands of fans who will pack out the stadium in the final sector will not have to worry about getting wet on Sunday, as the forecast shows a dry race is expected.

Assuming the race runs without significant interruption, the Mexican Grand Prix will be a dry race. There is a risk of post-race showers at around 6pm local time, but this falls outside of the three-hour window that the race has to be completed in.

More cloud cover than Saturday means that temperatures will be lower than on the first two days of the weekend, with ambient temperature topping out at 22C. As managing thermal degradation is crucial around this circuit, that will likely make drivers’ lives slightly easier in today’s race.

Start

Although Sainz was naturally delighted to be on pole for the sixth time in his Formula 1 career, he will likely be less thrilled about that fact in the ten seconds immediately following the lights going out.

The Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez also boasts the single longest run from pole position to the first braking zone of the entire calendar at 767 metres. Such a lengthy charge down to turn one means that the driver on pole position will have serious pressure from cars behind at the start, while drivers who start from the second row or even lower down have more opportunity to challenge those starting ahead of them.

Last year, Sergio Perez leapt from fifth on the grid to be challenging for the lead of the race into the first corner, before a collision with Charles Leclerc under braking wiped him out of the race to the dismay of his home fans.

Statistically, it will likely be difficult for Sainz to keep his lead from pole position. Over the eight previous starts in Mexico City since the race returned to the calendar in 2015, the driver on pole has only led the opening lap half the time, with the driver starting from second leading twice and third on the grid also assuming the lead on two occasions.

“I just need to make sure I do a good zero to 100 metres, which is the most important thing when you start on pole, just make sure you do a good jump,” Sainz said. ” And from there obviously do the best I can to defend.

“I have two guys behind fighting for quite important things tomorrow and the run down into turn one should be interesting. I have obviously less to lose in that sense and I’ll make sure that I try and keep P1.”

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Strategy

Last year’s race was the first at this track with the softest combination of tyres, the C3, C4 and C5 compounds. Although it was expected that the race would be a one-stop strategy, the red flag stoppage for Kevin Magnussen’s accident allowed several drivers to change their tyres, including free pit stops for Alexander Albon and Esteban Ocon who both poached the final points as a result.

This year, Pirelli suspect the one-stop – yet again – will be the way to go, starting on the mediums and then pitting somewhere between lap 25 and 32 for hard tyres. Pirelli have also observed lower levels of graining over the weekend so far compared to last year, which should only make a one-stop more favourable.

While most drivers opted for medium compounds for the start of the race last year, Lando Norris was the only driver to take a punt on the softs for the launch off the line. Starting down in 17th, he gained a single position on the opening lap as a result before passing Fernando Alonso in the early laps and pitting on lap 11.

Overtaking

Despite three DRS zones and one of the longest straights on the calendar, overtaking is statistically more challenging in Mexico City than many other circuits on the calendar.

The eight previous races at the modernised circuit have produced an average of only 28.75 on-track completed passes for position outside of the opening lap. That rate is significantly lower than many other permanent venues, especially those with as many laps as Mexico. However, last year’s event produced by far the most passes in a race in Mexico since 2015, with 46 passes for position.

Naturally the first corner is the most obvious passing spot, being at the end of the longest straight, but with the preceding DRS zone 75 metres shorter this year than last, it remains to be seen how much that could impact on drivers’ abilities to pass on Sunday.

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Safety Cars

Although Mexico may not strike many as being among the more eventful rounds of the season, every race here since 2015 has been affected by either a Safety Car or a Virtual Safety Car.

Last year’s race looked set to be the first, until a sudden suspension failure for Kevin Magnussen led to a heavy accident for the Haas driver which resulted in a red flag – the first red flag stoppage in the modern history of the Mexican Grand Prix. Any crashes into the TecPro barrier around the esses could result in a red flag stoppage for repairs, as George Russell’s shunt in second practice demonstrated.

But the greatest risk of a Safety Car will come on the opening lap due to the very long run down to the first corner that means drivers will be at a higher speed before braking for turn one than any other circuit, leading to a significant risk of accidents in the pack.

One to watch

Not one, but two drivers stand out as the obvious drivers to look out for in the pack today.

The first is Oscar Piastri, who starts down in 17th place after his worst qualifying of the season by every metric. Last year, with a car that was good but not as great as the one Piastri will be racing this afternoon, Norris rose from the same position on the grid to finish the Mexican Grand Prix in fifth place – if helped a little by a well-timed Safety Car. Team principal Andrea Stella has already said Piastri has a target to try and emulate this performance, so the pressure is already on to make up for his Q1 error.

The other is the man everyone in the grandstands will be watching and cheering for: Sergio Perez. The Red Bull driver starts one place behind Piastri in 18th – the seventh time in 20 rounds he will start outside of the top half of the grid. His results from those starts have been: eighth, DNF, DNF, eighth, 17th, seventh and tenth. But after complaining of braking difficulties on Saturday, will he be able to make more progress with his home fans cheering him on?

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Over to you

Can Sainz secure his second victory of the season, or will Verstappen and Norris prove too much for the Ferrari driver to keep at bay? Share your views on the Mexican Grand Prix in the comments.

How will today’s race affect the championship standings? Work out every possible outcome here:

2024 Mexican Grand Prix

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