What changed in two races to make Perez’s “unsustainable” situation tolerable? · RaceFans

Exactly 23 days ago, Red Bull team principal Christian Horner branded Sergio Perez’s performances “unsustainable”, following his point-less finish in the British Grand Prix.

Perez’s results in the two races since then were better, though only slightly. Yet following widespread speculation the team would make a change during the summer break, yesterday Red Bull let it be known that Perez is going nowhere for the time being.

Has Perez received too little credit for his response to Horner’s Silverstone warning? Or has something else changed in Red Bull’s calculations which have made what was an “unsustainable” situation suddenly sustainable – or at least tolerable?

Perez’s performance

Horner’s criticism of Perez’s performances followed a dismal five-race run for Red Bull’s second driver. He dropped out in Q1 in Monaco, then was eliminated from the race in a first-lap crash. He also failed to reach Q2 in Canada, then crashed out by himself in the race.

In Spain he was eighth, last of the drivers from the top four teams, a position he also held at the next race in Austria until Lando Norris’ late retirement. Then came the British Grand Prix, where he spun out in Q1 again and failed to reach the points after switching to intermediate tyres too early in the race.

From five rounds Perez scored just 11 points (one coming his way in the Austria sprint race). Next to that, 13 points from the last two rounds is a modest improvement, though his contribution to Red Bull’s total is dwarfed by that of his team mate Max Verstappen.

Still, what Horner described as “unsustainable” at Silverstone was not Perez’s low-scoring but no-scoring. “He knows it’s unsustainable to not be scoring points,” said Horner.

“We have to be scoring points with that car and he knows that. He knows his role and his target.” With this modest uplift, has Perez started to hit that target?

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Over the last two races, Perez qualified poorly again in Hungary but salvaged seventh in the race. Although he sank from second to seventh at Spa (eighth before George Russell’s disqualification), he also provided a useful benefit by aiding Verstappen’s efforts to out-score Norris, his closest rival in the drivers’ championship.

In the last two races Perez gave Red Bull confidence they could rely on him to do the minimum – top up Verstappen’s big points scores by finishing within range of their closest rivals. That still might not be enough to deliver the constructors’ title – but that’s a question of priorities.

Red Bull’s priorities

Have Red Bull decided the competition is so strong this year that they can’t realistically expect to win both titles, and have therefore opted for the one which brings the most recognition and prestige – the drivers’ championship?

McLaren have consistently eroded Red Bull’s points lead for more than two months. Verstappen and Perez have been out-scored by Norris and Oscar Piastri seven times in the last eight rounds. Heading into the summer break, McLaren are close enough it is mathematically possible for them to take the championship lead at the next round.

McLaren aren’t the only rival Red Bull need to worry about. Mercedes have out-scored them in six of the last seven events. But with 10 rounds to go and 485 points available, Mercedes face a huge task to close down their deficit to Red Bull, which stands at 142 points (Russell’s disqualification cost them 22).

Red Bull aren’t necessarily sacrificing the constructors’ title fight, but they appear to be prioritising the one they have a better chance in. No driver has made consistent inroads into Verstappen’s lead the way McLaren and Mercedes are doing to Red Bull in the teams’ championship.

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The last two races have given Red Bull hope that Perez can be relied on to stay within range of the competition, pick up at least four points per race and play the ‘Mexican Minister of Defence’ role – tellingly, the title they introduced him under at their launch event this year.

Verstappen has also voiced his support for his team mate, the importance of which should not be underestimated – as was the case when he publicly backed Helmut Marko earlier this year. Stability at the team undoubtedly suits his goal, but there’s another reason why Red Bull might be hesitant to replace Perez.

Absence of alternatives

Perez might have been in more trouble if Red Bull had an alternative candidate to replace him with, one they could be sure would represent enough of an improvement to be worth the aggravation of changing drivers.

But no clear-cut alternative has arguably emerged. At their second team RB, Yuki Tsunoda has scored the most points this year, but Daniel Ricciardo has increasingly had the measure of him over the last half-dozen races.

Ricciardo, still trying to get his career back on track after leaving Red Bull six years ago, has shown only rare flashes of his old form, in Mexico last year and the Miami sprint race this year. Had he or Tsunoda consistently performed at this level, Perez would surely be gone.

Liam Lawson gave a good account of himself during his brief spell at RB last year too, but Red Bull will surely want to see more from him before committing to promoting him.

The absence of an obviously superior alternative is another factor against replacing Perez. On top of that, there is the not-too-small matter of pride: Red Bull re-signed Perez just two months ago, and ousting him now would reflect incredibly badly on that previous decision.

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The X-factor

Whoever Red Bull have placed alongside Verstappen since Ricciardo left at the end of 2018, they have consistently failed to extract as much from their chassis as he can. This was true of Pierre Gasly in 2019, Alexander Albon in 2019-20 and Perez since then.

Perez’s advantage over his predecessors is that the Red Bull has become consistently more competitive over much of his spell at the team. His deficit to Verstappen hasn’t necessarily been much less in terms of lap time, but the performance of the car has allowed him to get closer in terms of results.

As Red Bull’s rivals have got closer this year, Perez has therefore inevitably found himself in the seventh-to-eighth-place zone on his best days. But do Red Bull expect better days ahead in the second half of the season?

Only Red Bull know what lies in store in their development programme. They’ve seen the likes of Ferrari get close to them, only to make a wrong step and fall back.

While Verstappen’s results haven’t been as strong in the last few races, there have been mitigating factors: power unit penalty, clashes with Hamilton and Norris. On several occasions he’s been hundredths of a second or less away from another of the pole positions he claimed regularly early in the season, which were almost invariably preludes to victory.

Red Bull’s expectations of what they can still extract from their RB20, now in its distinct ‘low downforce’ and ‘high downforce’ guises, may be emboldening them to stick with a driver pairing which may not be the best in the field, but is one they aren’t convinced they can significantly improve on the middle of the season.

But having dallied with the idea of replacing Perez and committed to him, if they fail to win the constructors’ championship, this will also certainly be looked back on as the decision which sealed their fate.

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