Norris knows he must “make the most” of chance to slash Verstappen’s points lead · RaceFans

It would have seemed unfathomable just a few months ago but it is true – McLaren could leave Monza on Sunday with the lead of the constructors’ championship.

After several rounds where they have been consistently the fastest overall team on the grid, McLaren will line up on the front row of the grid with Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri for the second time in the last four rounds.

A front row lock-out for McLaren is not unremarkable at this point in the season. However, the fact that Red Bull will start on the fourth row of the grid, behind all three of their closest rival teams, without any grid penalties or problems in qualifying to excuse them will have alarm bells ringing in Milton Keynes.

If McLaren convert this strong starting position into a one-two finish and score 43 points – even without the bonus point for fastest lap – and Red Bull fail to make any positions in the race and finish where they start, McLaren will assume the lead of the constructors’ championship for the first time in a decade.

Lando Norris, McLaren, Monza, 2024 — Norris has five cars between himself and Verstappen

But even after the results of qualifying, that still seems an improbable outcome. Not only does it assume that Max Verstappen will fail to make any progress from seventh on the grid, even Norris doubts McLaren will get to run away out front as he did a week ago in the Netherlands.

“I think when you look back to Zandvoort, you could say yes – there’s enough evidence that led us to believe we could have a very, very strong race,” he said.

“Here, less so, just because it’s been so close. But we’re still first and second, which means we have a good car, and that normally translates well into a good race car.”

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But regardless of how strong McLaren are in race pace, Norris expects Verstappen will have stronger pace in the race than in qualifying. Even so, he knows he has a “good opportunity” to make substantial gains on his rival’s 70-point lead in the drivers’ championship.

“I expect him to come through and probably be behind us quite quickly,” Norris said. “Their race pace looked very strong on Friday. They were on the better side of the graining and the degradation, so I expect them to probably be a bit more hopeful tomorrow.

“For some reason, they just didn’t seem to take those steps forward through qualifying. He still seemed quick – in Q2 he was right there and ended up quicker than me, even on a used tyre. And even his gap to Perez wasn’t as big as what it normally is. So I don’t know if he just struggled more with something or just didn’t put good enough laps in, but it’ll be for a reason, I’m sure. And we need to try and make the most of that.”

Weather

Alexander Albon, Williams, Monza, 2024 — Baking temperatures may make tyre management tricky

The weather could not have been kinder to drivers than it has been over the Monza weekend so far and that will continue into Sunday. For the third successive day on track action, clear and sunny skies will warm the circuit as temperatures into the low 30s yet again.

The chance of rain is virtually zero, making this a straightforward race for Franco Colapinto’s first grand prix in his Williams. After the heavy winds battered drivers throughout last week’s event at Zandvoort, wind is expected to be a non-factor in Monza on Sunday.

The only factor that could make a difference is how the heat of the sun will be retained by the fresh asphalt and how that could affect the tyres over the course of the race. With Monza traditionally a one-stop race, the new surface may present a different challenge than teams have become used to over the years.

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Start

At just over 600 metres from pole position to the apex of the Rettifilo chicane, this is one of the longer starts on the calendar. Drivers at the front will reach around 280kph before hitting the brakes for the first corner – the tightest on the calendar.

While the Rettifilo has seen plenty of squeezes and a few accidents over the years, there is at least a slightly reduced risk of carnage this year as the second part of the chicane has been widened for this year which should offer more room for drivers to navigate around it safely.

The recurring storyline when it comes to Norris starting from pole position is that he has never converted pole position into the lead of the race in his Formula 1 career. After it happened yet again last weekend in Zandvoort, when Verstappen beat him to the first corner, it would seem more likely that he will lose out when the lights go out on Sunday with such a sprint down the pit straight. But Norris says he has learned “a couple of things” from last weekend.

“For sure, we of course reviewed things like we always do,” he said. “I feel like we’ve made progress so far with our practice launches and stuff like that. So we’ll just crack on and do our best.”

Helping Norris to sleep better before the race is the knowledge that in the last ten race starts here, the driver on pole has only failed to lead the first lap of the race on three occasions.

Strategy

Usually, this would be the shortest strategy section of the season. With the highest average lap speed of any circuit ensuring this is one of the larger pit deltas on the calendar, making just a single stop has been the only card to play for many years.

However, this is not the same Monza that teams have been used to. As well as subtle changes to kerbs and a slightly wider first chicane, the majority of the circuit has been resurfaced since F1’s last visit here a year ago. As a result, natural grip is higher – but so to is tyre wear. Coupled with the sunny weather, it will not be such a simple strategy call.

“Temperatures will play an important role in the race,” said Pirelli’s motorsport director Mario Isola. “With conditions on Sunday forecast to be similar to Saturday’s, that definitely won’t help teams and drivers when it comes to tyre management.

“Graining could still be a factor, which could open the door to a possible two-stop strategy. That is why, apart from ensuring they have an additional option in the event of Safety Car or red flag, all the drivers, with the exception of Yuki Tsunoda, have chosen to keep two sets of hards for the race.”

Even if wear is high, the urge to avoid a second stop may prove even higher. There will likely be heavy tyre management during the race, with the question being whether to run on the harder compound for the start or save it for the second stint and get a better start on the softer compound. For those at the front of the field, especially the McLarens, it’s near certain they will stick with the softer compound for the start.

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Overtaking

As the fastest circuit on the calendar with the longest amount of the lap spent at full throttle, the slipstream opportunities are plentiful at Monza. Over the last ten races at Monza, there have been an average of 34 on-track overtakes over the course of the 53-lap race.

Lance Stroll, Aston Martin, Monza, 2024 — Drivers can open their DRS 103 metres earlier

Naturally, the majority of passes have been made down the pit straight into Rettifilo with the aid of DRS, but there have also been plenty of moves made without DRS into the Roggia chicane or even through the Lesmos over the years.

But what will make a difference is that the main DRS zone along the pit straight has been extended by just over 100 metres for this weekend. Naturally, that will make overtaking easier for attacking cars, but whether this change tips the scale too far in favour of those chasing remains to be seen.

Safety Cars

Although such a high speed circuit, Monza actually has one of the lower historic Safety Car rates of the current circuits.

Over the last ten Italian Grands Prix, the full Safety Car has only been deployed five times, while five of those races ran completely free of intervention.

The absence of any full Safety Car since the Canadian Grand Prix means there has now been five consecutive grands prix that have run completely green from start to finish – unprecedented in modern times. The historically strong reliability of cars this season has also played a significant role in this, but Monza is a circuit that asks a lot of power units despite it being the shortest race of the year.

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One to watch

Franco Colapinto, Williams, Monza, 2024 — Colapinto faces a climb from the back of the field

It’s not often that a driver makes their grand prix debut, and so Franco Colapinto is the obvious driver to keep an eye out as he becomes the first Argentinian driver to start a grand prix since Gaston Mazzacane in the 2001 San Marino Grand Prix – the fourth grand prix of Fernando Alonso’s F1 career.

While qualifying 18th sounds like he has achieved similar to what Logan Sargeant would typically do in the same car, it was, in truth, an underperformance given the potential of his Williams. With Alexander Albon taking ‘best of the rest’ honours with ninth on the grid, Colapinto knows he has a car that is capable of moving forward in his first ever grand prix.

“Tomorrow is going to be a very special day, my first F1 race,” he said. “It’s going to be an important moment of my career. I think my longest stint now was like eight laps – so tomorrow will be a long one running 57 or something. So I’m looking forward to tomorrow.”

Over to you

Will it be an easy victory for McLaren, or can Verstappen make progress up the order in the race? Share your views on the Italian Grand Prix in the comments.