McLaren’s first front row sweep for over a decade makes this a race they must not lose · RaceFans

McLaren head into the Hungarian Grand Prix on Sunday knowing that there can be no excuses if they do not come away from the circuit with their second victory of the season.

Not that the team who have scored more points than any over the last seven rounds have been offering any excuses for their failure to convert multiple opportunities for victories over recent months, of course. Team principal Andrea Stella accepted McLaren had to do better after letting another potential win slip through their fingers in Silverstone two weeks ago.

But after nearly a decade in the doldrums with some major changes in management, culture and resources, McLaren are bona fide, regular race win contenders once again. Now they need to start winning regularly.

Since that breakthrough win in Miami, McLaren have led laps in four separate grands prix, had a car on the front row four times out of six – including pole position in Spain – and finished second in five of the last six grand prix Sundays. But McLaren have locked out the front row for tomorrow’s race, something they last did in 2012. Pole winner Lando Norris is as bullish as he has sounded about his team’s chances for victory all year – even if Max Verstappen sits directly behind them on the grid.

“I’m as confident as we have been for a while,” Norris said after qualifying. “Both in qualifying and in races, we’ve been strong.

“I think our ‘bad’ ones are still third or fourth, but our ‘good’ ones have been chances to win. So definitely a good opportunity for both of us – and for us as a team – to score some big points. And that’s our target tomorrow.”

But at the highest level, there is a clear separation between those who to whom winning is the goal and those for whom winning is routine. McLaren have squandered too many chances at victory recently and Verstappen has been more than capable – and all too happy – to punish them for it. Even if the Red Bull is no longer the best overall package on the grid, the world champions can and will find a way to win if they can.

“We’ll try our very best. Try to have a good, stable balance with the car,” said Verstappen. “And I hope if I find that, that I can follow them.

“Honestly, my long runs have been okay, but nothing fantastic or special. I think it’s better to be realistic than sitting here and spreading false hope. But we’ll see tomorrow.”

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Weather

Heading into the weekend, all the talk was about how ‘hot, hot, hot’ the conditions would be out on the track. While that certainly proved the case over Friday’s practice sessions, the light showers in qualifying on Saturday caught many by surprise.

But while ambient temperatures are likely to firmly in the ‘summery’ range on Sunday, there is likely to be more cloud cover than Friday’s 60C track temperature scorcher. This could help to limit how hot the track gets and give drivers and their tyres a much easier time of it during the race, but Verstappen hopes that hotter conditions may offer him more opportunities to fight the McLarens.

“The last few races, McLaren has been really, really good in the race, even compared to qualifying,” he said after qualifying. “Today was a lot colder than expected, I guess, with the clouds and a bit of the rain. Sunday is going to be quite a different day and I just hope that that will help us.”

As ever, though, it may not quite be that simple. Current forecasts project a very mild risk of rain at around 15-17% for the start of the race. This is lower than the predicted chance of rain there was for Saturday, but as qualifying showed, that is not low enough to be ignored. And the increased cloud cover compared to what teams originally expected will mean lower track temperatures.

Start

With just under 600 metres from the timing line to the first corner, this is one of the longest start runs on the calendar. And one of the most exciting as a result.

Last year, pole winner Lewis Hamilton was swamped off the line, dropping from first to third by the exit of turn one before losing another place to Norris into turn three. Last year Verstappen led Oscar Piastri and Norris at the end of lap one; they’ll line up in the reverse of that order this year.

While Piastri has every reason to aim for the lead into turn one and stake an early claim for his maiden grand prix victory, he has already conceded that he and Norris will need to be “smart” on the run to turn one. The focus is on their opportunity to take a large chunk out of Red Bull’s lead in the constructors’ championship, rather than beating the other into the first corner.

“Honestly, it’s something we’ll talk about – and the same as we’ve always done,” Norris said. “We’ve always kept it clean. I think we’ve treated each other well and given each other respect, helped each other when we needed to. So no worries from our part.”

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Strategy

Without any Safety Car interventions, last year’s Hungarian Grand Prix was a straightforward two-stop race. The vast majority of those at the front opted for mediums to start the race, switched to hard tyres at their first stop, then fitted a second set of mediums for the run to the chequered flag. Only third-placed Sergio Perez differed from this out of the top five finishers, largely because he started the race from ninth.

Last year’s race was certainly hot, with track temperatures sitting in the low 50C range. But although temperatures could be even higher on Sunday, Pirelli say they expect a similar approach to this year’s race.

“On paper, the quickest option is to start on the mediums before then bringing in the hards,” said Pirelli’s director of motorsport, Mario Isola.

“Clearly, the number of available sets of these two harder compounds will determine the teams’ decisions. There are three teams – Red Bull, McLaren and Ferrari – whose drivers only have one set of new hards and two of new mediums available, while one – Aston Martin – has one set of new mediums and one of new hards. All the other teams have at least two sets of hards and one of mediums.”

Will anyone chance starting on the softs? The potential advantage on the long run to turn one is tempting, but whether it’s a viable strategy may come down to how hot it is.

Overtaking

Despite the self-perpetuating meme that the Hungaroring is simply ‘Monaco without the barriers’, the reality is very different. It is very much possible to make passes on track here outside of the opening lap – but by no means easy.

Last year’s uninterrupted race at the Hungaroring produced 17 on-track passes for position after lap one that stuck by the end of their respective laps. Naturally, the vast majority of these took place at the end of the almost 800m long pit straight with the aid of DRS – something that is likely to be emulated on Sunday.

Although moves can be made on track here, the bigger challenge is following. Especially as the current ground effect cars become increasingly sensitive to dirty air, the sweeping turns through the middle sector into the two slow, sustained corners make it difficult to stay tucked up behind a rival to gain that slipstream along the pit straight. And with hotter track temperatures meaning that drivers will have to be even more careful not to overheat their tyres, it may prove even more of a challenge to pass than typically on Sunday.

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Safety Cars

Should the field successfully complete the opening lap without any major dramas, there is a higher-than-average chance the race will run entirely free of Safety Car interventions than most.

Last year’s race ran lights-to-flag under green flag conditions throughout its 70 laps, while there were only two Virtual Safety Car periods in 2022 – the second caused by Valtteri Bottas pulling off the track with a problem late in the race. Bottas was also held responsible for the only red flag-triggering incident at the Hungaroring in the last ten years, when inadvertently triggered a chain reaction on the run to turn one which took out several cars.

However, that incident took place in wet conditions – something unlikely to be the case on Sunday. With only four of the last ten Hungarian Grands Prix affected by Safety Cars, it’s more likely that we will see a conventional race than one with a high degree of chaos.

The only significant difference compared to last year are the alterations to track limits at some corners. One of those, at turn five, already claimed Yuki Tsunoda in qualifying.

One to watch

This weekend, the one to watch seems fair obvious. While Perez starts well out of position once again in 16th – if he even makes the grid – George Russell is less used to being in such a lowly place in his Mercedes.

However, last year, Russell was also knocked out in Q1 and started down in 18th. Despite this, he rose all the way up to finish in seventh, promoted to sixth after the race.

This year, Russell has a Mercedes which is more potent than it was in 2023, coming off back-to-back victories in the last two rounds. Even if the battle at the front proves uneventful, Russell may well provide some entertainment as he works his way up the order. How long he spends behind the under-fire Perez will be especially interesting.

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Over to you

Will Verstappen put one over McLaren again? What will Perez and Russell be able to do from their compromised starting positions?

Share your views on the Hungarian Grand Prix in the comments.

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