How Verstappen and Alpine were spared the worst tactical dilemma · RaceFans

A dejected Lando Norris rued his misfortune after seeing his championship hopes all but ruined in the Interlagos rain.

From the McLaren driver’s perspective, he’d taken the effective lead of the race by passing George Russell when the conditions deteriorated, shortly after the pair pitted for fresh sets of intermediate tyres.

But ahead of them lay three drivers who had not taken fresh rubber. Soon afterwards the race was red-flagged, they were able to replace their worn tyres, and the trio annexed the podium.

Had they been merely lucky, as Norris claimed afterwards, or had McLaren and Mercedes blown their drivers’ chances to win with needless pit stops?

Nico Hulkenberg, Haas, Interlagos, 2024 — Hulkenberg’s spin triggered a pivotal VSC period

Even looking only at this pivotal moment in the race, and ignoring the other errors which cost him places, Norris’ is only partly correct in his assessment. Verstappen and the Alpine drivers were fortunate, but not simply because of the fact the red flag was shown.

What really made the difference was the timing of the Virtual Safety Car period. This was the moment fortune smiled on the podium trio, but also where McLaren and Mercedes made race-losing errors.

The rain was already worsening when Nico Hulkenberg skidded off at turn one on lap 27. The Haas driver had the misfortune to become perched on a ridge, and couldn’t drive away. The marshals therefore had to enter the track to recover his car, which meant the Virtual Safety Car was needed.

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Teams are always alert to the opportunities VSC periods and conventional Safety Car deployments offer to make pit stops while losing less time than they would during green flag running. Pitting under normal conditions costs around 21 seconds at Interlagos, doing so in neutralised conditions around half that.

George Russell, Lando Norris, Interlagos, 2024 — Russell and Norris lost the lead when they pitted

But pitting under a VSC is potentially much riskier than doing so when the Safety Car is coming out. Once a Safety Car period is declared, teams know they will have the chance to complete a pit stop before the race resumes. VSC periods can be much shorter, as was the case at Interlagos, and that was what caught out Russell and Norris.

When the VSC period began on lap 28, race leader Russell had already passed the pit lane entrance with Norris close behind. So had Esteban Ocon, who was almost 13 seconds behind in third, followed by Yuki Tsunoda and Verstappen. The second Alpine of Pierre Gasly narrowly missed the opportunity to make it in.

The first two drivers who had the chance to come in under the VSC and fit fresh tyres while losing minimal time did so: Oscar Piastri and Fernando Alonso. Liam Lawson did not, but RB appeared slow to react: They brought both drivers in the next time around. Charles Leclerc did not pit, having already come in a few laps earlier, but Oliver Bearman, Lewis Hamilton and Carlos Sainz Jnr.

Significantly, Red Bull brought Sergio Perez in under the VSC, telling him there was “not much to lose” pitting given the race situation.

As the leaders approached the end of the lap the VSC period remained in force, though it was unclear how much longer it was going to last. Russell and Norris’ teams had the most to lose and faced the biggest dilemma: Would it stay out long enough for them to be able to fit fresh tyres and rejoin, potentially before Ocon and the rest arrived?

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Both teams committed to bringing their drivers in: And got the worst possible outcome. The instant Russell and Norris entered the pit lane, the VSC ended. Their pit stops cost them almost as much time as pitting under green flag conditions.

Esteban Ocon, Alpine, Interlagos, 2024 — Alpine were able to change tyres in the pits

For Ocon, Verstappen and Gasly, the dilemma of whether they should pit under the VSC never arose: It started too late and ended too early for them to consider pitting at that time. That doesn’t mean they were always going to avoid the ‘wrong’ call: RB brought Tsunoda in at this point, though they had decided conditions now demanded the full wet weather tyre.

Should Mercedes or McLaren have avoided their ultimately race-losing calls? Pitting that late in a VSC was always going to be risky. Hulkenberg’s car could be seen driving away on the world feed around the time the leaders were at Juncao. In Mercedes’ case, Russell was lobbying on his radio to stay out.

But the extra 13 seconds Ocon and the rest behind them had meant they never even had to consider whether to come in. Verstappen and the Alpine drivers reaped the benefit of staying out by avoiding the temptation to come in, but to them the price of coming in was always much higher than it was for their rivals.

That might not have been the case had the VSC been thrown more quickly in response to Hulkenberg’s spin. In that respect, the very circumstances Red Bull claimed went against them in qualifying worked in their favour when it mattered most.