How Red Bull missed the mark with Verstappen’s car

The story surrounding Red Bull’s recent decline began at the 2023 Spanish Grand Prix, if team principal Christian Horner is to be believed.

There seemed to be no problem, especially with Max Verstappen dominating the entire year, but nothing could be further from the truth. Red Bull introduced a new floor that weekend, after which point Sergio Perez struggled to handle the car.

So, what happened? The answer did not come until a year later, at the grand prix weekend in Miami.

Verstappen and Perez again dominated at the start of the season, but were far from happy with the new RB20. The car reacted unpredictably and the balance left much to be desired.

It was the prelude to a very worrisome period for Red Bull, as McLaren introduced a major update and seized the initiative. 

Whilst Lando Norris’ qualifying did not go to plan in Florida, the Briton took victory after a dominant drive, aided by luck with the safety car.

And at Red Bull, on the other hand, a downward trend was emerging. The named floor from Spain turns out to be a wrong turn, which meant that all new developments, one year on, were backfiring.

Indeed, Red Bull continued to build the RB19 and its predecessor, the RB20, on that basis. In the wind tunnel it seemed to lead to hefty improvements. However, on the track it appeared to further upset the balance.

Verstappen dragged out important victories in Imola, Canada and Spain, although after that he and Red Bull endured a 10-round winless drought, ended in remarkable fashion at the rain-ravaged Sao Paulo Grand Prix, before another sublime drive in Qatar once the championship was already confirmed.

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Correlation

But how did Red Bull reach this point? Mainly because of a problem with correlation.

Helmut Marko explained on several occasions that the results from the wind tunnel and simulator appear to not correspond to the track.

Now, it remains difficult for any team to find the perfect correlation, but such a problem leads to many doubts. The bright minds at Red Bull, as mentioned above, kept building new parts on a fragile foundation, then it only produced piecemeal results.

Sure, the RB20 is a development on its predecessor, but the team was no match for McLaren’s rapid advance. Indeed, it only added problems.

A little side step to Ferrari shows what a wrong update can cause. The Scuderia took many new parts to Barcelona and also hit the incorrect mark.

It led to a lacklustre period until the summer break, when Ferrari’s engineers finally figured out the problem. The mistakes were fixed and Ferrari even took a couple of wins, although the team narrowly missed out on the constructors’ title. Just imagine if the update had worked…

The Italian Grand Prix would end up being the low point for Red Bull. Verstappen struggled like hell with the car and couldn’t keep pace with McLaren, Ferrari and Mercedes by a long shot.

It made all alarm bells go off at Red Bull and Verstappen started working even more intensively with the engineers. An update in the United States was supposed to turn things around, although Verstappen also knew that certain problems could not be solved until 2025.

So it became a survival quest until the end of the season, a task in which Verstappen succeeded magnificently. He took his fourth world title at the expense of Norris.

Quality

The conclusion that Verstappen’s qualities were the deciding factor is also more than justified. The Dutchman normally made the most of a difficult situation, and also took advantage of mistakes at McLaren.

Looking at Red Bull’s decline, it is quite extraordinary that Verstappen ended the season with a 63-point lead over Norris. The RB20 was not up to the task and Red Bull finished third in the constructors’ championship.

For Verstappen, as well as Red Bull, they will hope those fundamental problems will be a thing of the past by 2025. The RB20 had a very small operating window and was uncontrollable with the slightest adjustments, while the problem with bumps and kerbs is also still unresolved.

If Red Bull improves the correlation slightly and finds a solution to the balance problems, Verstappen could compete for the title again in 2025. Otherwise, it will be another tough story for the Milton Keynes squad.