How McLaren or Ferrari can win the 2024 F1 constructors’ in Abu Dhabi
For the first time since 2008, one of F1’s two most successful teams will win a world championship title.
In the era of Red Bull, Mercedes and then Red Bull again (not forgetting the Brawn fairytale of 2009), McLaren and Ferrari have endured a barren run, neither winning a title since they split the 2008 titles.
Ferrari won the constructors’, whilst Lewis Hamilton took the drivers’ for McLaren. The odds on neither team winning another title for 16 years would have received long odds.
Heading to the 2024 finale in Abu Dhabi, McLaren are favourites, sitting 21 points clear of the Scuderia as 640 points play 619.
To win a 17th constructors’ title, Ferrari must out-score McLaren by 21 points if it wins at Yas Marina or by 22 points if Charles Leclerc or Carlos Sainz do not take victory.
If the two teams were to finish level on points, the title would be decided on countback with number of wins determining the title winner.
As it stands heading into the weekend, both McLaren and Ferrari have five grand prix wins apiece in 2024, meaning second places are then taken into account should neither team win in Abu Dhabi yet end level.
In this scenario, McLaren would emerge successful as it has 10 second-places to its name in 2024 to Ferrari’s four.
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How Ferrari can win the title
In the most straight-forward scenario for Ferrari of taking a maximum haul of 44 points for a one-two and a fastest lap, it would move the team onto 663 points.
In this scenario, with that extra win, McLaren would need to score 24 points to move it onto a total of 664.
To achieve this, the team would require one car to finish in third place and bank 15 points, meaning the second car would have to finish in fourth (12) or fifth (10) to win the title.
Should it be a Ferrari one-two with fastest lap and a McLaren third, if the second MCL60 finished sixth (8) or lower, the title would head to Maranello.
In case of neither McLaren scoring any points at all, Ferrari would need to finish at least fourth (12) and fifth (10) to earn 22 points to overhaul McLaren.
However, Ferrari’s chances have taken a blow after Friday practice, with Leclerc set for a 10-place grid penalty after taking a third energy store of the season, when only two are permitted.
Although he can win qualifying, he will start 11th at best if he were to take the fastest time.
