How Ferrari has become shock F1 title underdog

Turn back the clock to Lewis Hamilton inheriting victory in the Belgian Grand Prix, and Ferrari was a team looking over its shoulder at a rampant Mercedes. 

Fast-forward to today, and out of the blue, the Maranello-based team has become a genuine F1 title underdog. 

With eight rounds remaining, it has already been a rollercoaster campaign for the Italians, but it could miraculously end in championship glory. 

Ferrari has quietly gone about its business in recent months, remaining within touching distance of McLaren, a team many agree have the strongest car on the grid. 

It is easy to forget Ferrari was Red Bull’s biggest threat over the opening rounds, with Carlos Sainz collecting a heroic win in Australia just days after undergoing an appendectomy, and following an early race-ending brake issue for Red Bull’s Max Verstappen. 

A few rounds later, Charles Leclerc was finally victorious on his home turf of Monaco, taking an emphatic victory. 

As Leclerc stood on the top of the podium, Ferrari was suddenly considered a potential title contender. 

That ‘potential’, however, quickly became impossible, as a nightmare run of results saw Ferrari erased from any title fight debate. 

Its considerable Spanish Grand Prix upgrade package caused several serious issues for the team, notably bouncing with its SF-24. 

After Monaco, Leclerc scored just 12 points across the following four races. Sainz impressed to a certain extent but still only managed 41. 

Leclerc title chances

The difference in form, though, resulted in Sainz mounting pressure on Leclerc when you consider it was the latter retained for next season to partner Hamilton. 

Ferrari’s golden boy has risen to the challenge, though, by scoring 62 points in the last four events, including a famous victory in the Italian Grand Prix. 

Staggeringly, Leclerc’s win has seen his name enter the title picture, as Max Verstappen is only 86 points ahead. 

It is a considerable margin, however, a win for Leclerc and a retirement for Lando Norris in Azerbaijan this weekend would see the Ferrari driver move to second in the drivers’ championship. 

With Red Bull crumbling, 86 points is remarkably a margin which can be overcome, although it will require the very best that Leclerc and Ferrari can offer. 

What is staggering is that, despite his difficult four-race spell after Monaco, Leclerc has gone unnoticed in third in the standings. 

Leclerc, and Ferrari, could play a dramatic part in the title fight, regardless of who comes out on top. Ferrari’s upgrades introduced in Monza worked – the big question is whether the package will continue to work in the Azerbaijan and Singapore double-header.

Based on last season, Singapore should be a strong circuit for Ferrari as Sainz secured victory in the hot and humid conditions – the only race to be won by a non-Red Bull driver in 2023. 

Azerbaijan is also an event Leclerc enjoys as he claimed a podium last season. Leclerc was the only driver who took the fight to Red Bull in Baku just over 15 months ago. 

If Leclerc makes further gains on Norris and Verstappen across the upcoming double-header, it will not just be Ferrari considered as an underdog for the title. 

Sainz significance

Leclerc’s current run of three consecutive podiums has pushed Ferrari into the constructors’ title fight, with the historic outfit just 39 points adrift of Red Bull. 

Whilst unlikely, Ferrari could leave Baku in the lead of the standings. Red Bull could even fall to third. 

The title fight is extraordinary, with Sainz just as crucial as Leclerc to Ferrari’s hopes. In fact, Sainz is pivotal to Leclerc mounting a serious title fight himself. 

Sainz is not in the title fight and is joining Williams next year; however, he is eager to remain on good terms with team principal Fred Vasseur and Ferrari. 

He has been magnificently consistent this campaign, finishing in the top six in 14 of the 15 races in which he has competed.

If Leclerc can continue his run of consistent rostrums, then Sainz finishing towards the top will take further points away from Red Bull and McLaren. 

Ferrari and McLaren share the strength of having two drivers who can fight for wins, a weakness of Red Bull which has been exploited on many occasions. 

The Italian team is not the favourite but they are contenders, underdogs in many ways. That could be the biggest weapon in Ferrari’s armoury as nobody expected them to enter the fight.