Max Verstappen put together a superb display to capture victory in the Japanese Grand Prix over the McLarens of Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri, the second act to his scintillating qualifying lap to secure pole position.
Whilst the Dutchman had to race more on the limit than would have been comfortable, on account of the Red Bull RB21’s pace deficit to the Woking-based team’s MCL39, it was a measured and mature performance from the four-time F1 drivers’ champion.
For every McLaren punch, Verstappen had an equal counter-punch. The 27-year-old’s ability, against the odds, to match Norris’ race pace was enough to keep the British driver at bay across the 53-lap grand prix. He did just enough. Not too little and, crucially, not too much.
That is reflected in the analysis of the near-perfect parity between them, methodically executed by Verstappen to go toe-to-toe and blow-for-blow against the current F1 drivers’ championship leader in inferior machinery.
Average lap time gaps are shown below. The article continues thereafter.
Matching Norris
Verstappen ultimately preserved his advantage by producing an average lap-by-lap deficit to Norris of just three thousandths of a second.
The 64-time grand prix winner achieved this, in large part, by making good on his superior starting position, leading from the front and utilising the clear air at his disposal to minimise the performance delta between the Red Bull and McLaren cars.
However, without his metronomic consistency to equal Norris’ pace, victory would not have been possible. In avoiding significant peaks, Verstappen put together a sustainable roadmap to the win across the race’s duration, which is best shown in the race pace data.
Race pace comparison shown below. The article continues thereafter.
Lead and tyre management
Looking at the lap times of the top five finishers, Verstappen built an early lead, which he subsequently managed from lap eight onwards, allowing him to maintain control of the race.
When Norris attempted to close the gap, he responded, owning enough of an advantage to avoid being at risk from the McLaren.
For the 25-year-old to successfully make a move on Verstappen, he would have needed to have mounted a concerted attack across a number of laps, something the Red Bull driver’s approach sufficiently accounted for – aided by how difficult it is to close up and overtake through the flowing corners of the Suzuka circuit.
Try too hard and there was a risk of overheating the tyres, something that was only a factor during the race when following close behind in the dirty air of the car in front, given the relative lack of tyre wear seen throughout.
The lap-by-lap breakdown of their pace shows how Verstappen was able to retaliate to Norris’ advances, whilst looking after his Pirellis, something that was significantly helped by the cooler conditions than had been seen earlier in the weekend.
Heavy rain between qualifying and the race lowered the temperature towards a more comfortable operating window for the RB21, which is harder on its rubber than the McLaren.
In-depth lap time data is shown below. The article continues thereafter.
Blot on Red Bull’s copybook
Red Bull did, however, almost cost Verstappen victory for the sole pit stop phase of the grand prix. Partly disadvantaged due to a late change to its crew, the Milton Keynes squad lost a second to McLaren at this point (below).
In the Dutchman and Norris’ case, it allowed the Briton to pull alongside Verstappen at the exit of the pit lane, coming close to taking the lead, and control of the final stint.
There was also a small front wing misalignment on the RB21, which had to be managed by the 27-year-old to the chequered flag.
Although there are still 21 rounds to go, it was an important victory for Verstappen, who has closed to within one point of Norris in the drivers’ championship standings.
