Divorce is in the air. What’s next for Red Bull, RB, Perez

Red Bull team principal Christian Horner’s responses over Sergio Perez’s future changed noticeably in the wake of the Qatar Grand Prix, where the team’s hopes of winning a third consecutive constructors’ championship ended.

Previously Horner was at pains to stress Red Bull’s faith in Perez’s ability to turn his dire season around. But last night his words carried unmistakeable overtones that a parting of ways is imminent.

“We’re going to give him all the support that we can to the chequered flag in Abu Dhabi next weekend,” said Horner. “And what he decides to do, that will be his decision at the end of the day.”

Horner referred to the role Perez played in helping the team win the last two constructors’ championships. However such was the team’s advantage last year that Max Verstappen single-handedly scored enough points to guarantee them the title, and Perez must shoulder a significant amount of the blame for their defeat this year.

Perez has scored so poorly that while his team mate clinched the drivers’ title two races ago, Red Bull will go to the season finale unable to win the constructors’ title.

This scenario hasn’t happened since 1982, and it took some extreme circumstances for that to happen. While Keke Rosberg won the drivers’ title for Williams, the team’s second car rotated between three different drivers, and contributed just 24% of their points total. Still, that’s little worse than Perez’s 26%.

Notwithstanding the new deal Red Bull handed Perez earlier this year, motorsport consultant Helmut Marko recently said the team’s shareholders will consider Perez’s future after the season ends. They are likely to take a dim view of their failure to deliver both titles when Verstappen is 80 points ahead in the drivers’ standings.

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But if the writing is finally on the wall for Perez, Red Bull’s choice of his replacement is less obvious. Daniel Ricciardo was clearly being eyed as a potential replacement when they rehired him just under two years ago, but that didn’t work out.

That leaves three likely options on the table for Red Bull – and potential consequences for their junior team, not to mention their departing driver.

Lawson: Another quick promotion to Red Bull?

Liam Lawson chalked up his 10th grand prix start last weekend for Red Bull’s second team. He made all those starts alongside Yuki Tsunoda, and though he hasn’t blown away his more experienced team mate, he has shown promising pace given his lack of experience.

Last year, handed his grand prix debut at short notice, Lawson acquitted himself superbly on a wet track and Zandvoort. He went on to claim a points finish at Singapore, delivering the team’s best result of the season at the time. Lawson scored immediately on his return this year and continued to acquit himself well on largely unfamiliar tracks.

Although Lawson will only have started 11 grands prix by the end of the season, a lack of experienced hasn’t deterred Red Bull in the past. Alexander Albon was ushered into the top team after just 12 races in 2019.

Tsunoda: His chance at last?

Nearing the end of his fourth year at RB (formerly AlphaTauri), Tsunoda’s place in the team next year has already been confirmed. However Red Bull never seem to have been particularly enthusiastic about promoting him further. It took him a while to get on terms with Pierre Gasly, who was relegated to their junior squad after just half a season in 2019.

However Red Bull have arranged to run Tsunoda in one of their cars in post-season testing. This could be his last, best chance to convince the team he deserves a seat.

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Colapinto: Outsider’s hopes fading?

Franco Colapinto made an eye-catching debut for Williams when the team lost patient with Logan Sargeant after the Dutch Gran Prix. After a calm debut at Monza he rose above the chaos in Baku to take a superb eighth – ahead of Lewis Hamilton, no less – and added another point at Austin.

As both Williams seats are occupied next year, rumours spread that Colapinto could find his way into Red Bull’s operation at some level. That speculation cooled following Colapinto’s crashes at Interlagos and Las Vegas.

RB: Which junior is next?

Any driver movement further up the Red Bull operation is likely to have an effect downstream at RB. But if they find themselves with a vacancy to plug, will Red Bull opt for Colapinto, or one of its many juniors?

Isack Hadjar has given a very good account of himself in Formula 2 this year. He’s just half a point off the championship lead, despite having some lousy luck at times. He has also racked up a useful amount of F1 practice sessions appearances.

Japanese Super Formula racer Ayumu Iwasa may also be a candidate. However he didn’t have as strong a year in the series as Lawson did last year, ending the season a win-less fifth while his Red Bull predecessor took a trio of victories and only missed the title by eight points.

Perez: The end of the line?

Prior to last weekend’s race, Perez dismissed suggestions Red Bull could relegate him to RB next year. Given that, he isn’t going to find a seat on the F1 grid in 2025.

A return further down the line is not impossible, however. Cadillac’s expected arrival in 2026 will open up two more seats, and with over 280 starts to his name Perez would bring an enviable amount of experience. However tough recent years has been, he has proved himself a capable team leader in the past, notably when he took Racing Point to their sole victory in 2020.

Whatever happens, if this is to be Perez’s final F1 drive for the foreseeable future this weekend, hopefully he gets the chance to acknowledge it, unlike Ricciardo’s poorly-handled exit at the Singapore Grand Prix earlier this year.

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