A third penalty-to-win drive at Spa for Verstappen will be his toughest yet · RaceFans

Over his three championship seasons to date in 2021, 2022 and 2023, Max Verstappen took at least one grand prix victory at 23 different circuits.

But out of all of them, the one venue where has looked the most supreme has been Spa-Francorchamps.

Three races, three qualifying sessions topped, three grand prix victories. And he won Spa’s only sprint race so far, last year. But while it would be easy to put his victories down to unmatched superiority of his Red Bull, the world champion was made to work for his wins the last two years.

For each of the last two Belgian Grands Prix, Verstappen has been the fastest driver in qualifying but started Sunday’s race well outside of the top ten. In 2022, Red Bull opted to take a fourth power unit for Verstappen’s car heading into the opening practice session.

Verstappen incurred multiple power unit component penalties and was theoretically ordered to start from “the back of the grid”. However, due to six other drivers earning the same penalty across the weekend and as Verstappen set the quickest time in qualifying, he actually lined up 14th, then went on to gain several places in the race to win.

Last year, Verstappen was the fastest on Friday to set the grid for Sunday’s grand prix once again. But for the second straight season, he started off the front row – this time because of a gearbox penalty. As a result, he started from sixth on the grid rather than pole, but was still able to climb up the order to take the lead by lap 17 from his team mate.

Verstappen’s penalties in consecutive years at Spa were not just coincidence, but by design. Due to the limitations on how many power units each driver is permitted to run over a season, many drivers will end up exceeding the four power units or five gearboxes they are allowed under the 2024 regulations. The world champion has already used all four of his power units allowed this season and ten rounds still remain, so it’s a near-certainty that Verstappen will have to take a grid penalty hit at some point before Abu Dhabi.

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Of the remaining venues, Spa is the obvious choice. One of the fastest circuits on the calendar, the boost from a fresh engine is far more effective here than it would be if a new engine was taken at Zandvoort, Singapore or many other upcoming tracks. The long straights at the track also offer plenty of overtaking opportunities, with the premier spot located along the Kemmel Straight on the run to Les Combes.

Max Verstappen, Red Bull, Circuit Gilles Villeneuve, 2024 — Power unit trouble in Montreal put Verstappen at a disadvantage

But while a strategic grid penalty at Spa makes sense, Verstappen’s prospects of pulling off the same achievement of charging straight back to the front of the field again feel like they would be far harder than the last two seasons.

For a start, Red Bull no longer enjoy anywhere close to the same performance advantage as they did the last two times they arrived at Spa. Arguably, the team no longer have the fastest package in the paddock.

In 2022, Verstappen turned up in Belgium having taken consecutive grand prix wins in France and Hungary, before going on to win that weekend in Spa in what would end up being race three of a five-round winning streak. Last year, Red Bull and Verstappen were even more dominant. They were seven races into what was became an all-time record wins streak by the time of the round at Spa. Verstappen headed qualifying by eight tenths of a second on Friday, underlying how untouchable he was likely to be around the circuit that weekend.

Red Bull face an utterly different situation heading to Spa this year. Rather than being the team to beat, the world champions just want to win again – something they have not been able to do since the Spanish Grand Prix over a month ago, a race that they could have been beaten at as well had Lando Norris made a better start from pole position.

McLaren are arguably the team to beat, having secured a one-two finish last weekend at the Hungaroring, while Red Bull’s upgrades failed to deliver the kind of immediate boost or improved balance that the team and Verstappen would have hoped for. But while the Hungaroring is a high-downforce, relatively low speed circuit, Spa is the polar opposite. After Mercedes took pole position in Silverstone with George Russell before winning the race with Lewis Hamilton in mixed conditions, there’s a possibility that Mercedes will prove stronger again around the fast, flowing corners in Belgium than they were in Hungary, only adding to the challenge Red Bull face.

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There is also a subtle difference about this weekend’s event that could end up having a major impact on how easily Verstappen could make his way up the order if he takes a grid penalty. After several seasons of the DRS activation point along the Kemmel Straight being located just before the right hand kink at Kemmel, this year will see it moved until just after the kink itself – making the DRS zone a total of 75 metres shorter than it was last year.

Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes, Spa-Francorchamps, 2023 — DRS will be less powerful on the Kemmel straight this year

Although a very small reduction in theory, this will naturally make overtaking more difficult. Last year, the boost in top speed that the RB19 had from opening DRS along the Kemmel Straight was significant. When Verstappen overtook Charles Leclerc’s Ferrari for second place on the ninth lap of last year’s grand prix, DRS gave him a massive 24kph advantage over Leclerc along the straight. Although DRS will still be powerful this weekend, those extra 75 metres will certainly count for those drivers who somehow have to defend from the world champion on Sunday.

Finally, this is a problem that Verstappen is largely alone in facing this weekend of those at the front of the field. Although he was supposed to start to the ‘back of the grid’ two years ago with his power unit penalty, he ended up in the midfield due to the volume of his rivals who also made the same strategic decision. But this weekend, Verstappen is alone of those in the top ten of the championship to be sitting on four used power units, aside from team mate Sergio Perez, who has already been penalised for taking his fifth of the season in Silverstone.

Each of the McLaren, Mercedes, Ferrari and Aston Martin drivers have all used three of their four internal combustion engines through the season so far. If any of Verstappen’s rivals choose to take a new engine for this weekend – as many may well do at a high power-dependent circuit – none of them will cop a grid penalty for doing so. That means if Verstappen does indeed take a fifth power unit, the combined penalties from exceeding his internal combustion engine, turbo charger, MGU-H and MGU-K, as well as maybe he energy stores and control electronics, will doom him to starting at the very back. unless his Red Bull stablemates at RB, Daniel Ricciardo and Yuki Tsunoda – both having used four power units – opt to do the same.

Back in 2022, Verstappen said that it would be “a shame not to be on the podium” despite starting from 14th, before going onto win the race. This weekend, should he take a penalty for the third consecutive Belgian Grand Prix, a Verstappen podium finish may well be a more impressive achievement than his two victories here.

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