F1 2025 world championship could be decided on qualifying sessions

Ferrari team principal Fred Vasseur believes the current Formula 1 season is in danger of becoming a “qualifying world championship”, with overtaking at a premium in the past two rounds.

While the 2025 campaign began with a frantic Australian Grand Prix, the changeable weather played a key part in ensuring plenty of on-track action.

It has been a different story, though, in both the Chinese Grand Prix and this weekend’s Japanese Grand Prix, where very little overtaking took place.

In what is the final year of the current regulations, there has not only been a convergence in car design but simultaneously teams have also found ways around rules that were originally introduced to promote more overtaking.

Across 2024 there were 70 fewer overtakes than a year earlier, despite there being two extra races. And so far in 2025, all three drivers who qualified on pole position have gone on to win the respective grands prix.

As particularly proven by the victories of polesitters Oscar Piastri in Shanghai and Max Verstappen at Suzuka, clean air is currently king. At Suzuka, the top six in qualifying all finished in the same order come the race.

“For sure, qualifying is always crucial in the performance,” said Ferrari team principal Vasseur. “The smaller the gap is between cars, the more true that is… because you are in the group of cars.

“It’s not that you are just one fighting with the guy in front of you. Yes, it will probably be a ‘quali’ championship.”

McLaren has widely been regarded as the car to beat this year, but Lando Norris could not find a way past Verstappen, while team-mate Piastri was holed up in third.

The pair both pointed to Verstappen’s stunning pole lap as deciding a race in which they could not find a way past the Dutchman for 53 laps.

Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing leads at the start

Photo by: Bryn Lennon – Formula 1

“It was flat-out from start to finish but the pace was too similar to do anything,” said Norris, who still leads the championship having finished second. “Max drove a good race with no mistakes, and it ultimately came down to qualifying positions.”

Piastri added: “We got close for the overtake a few times, but track position around here is just so important. I think yesterday was the day where you effectively won the race.”

Meanwhile, Ferrari has endured a tough start to the season, victory in the Shanghai sprint race for Lewis Hamilton aside, and is currently the clear fourth-fastest team on the grid behind McLaren, Red Bull and Mercedes.

While a double points finish in Japan was better than both Hamilton and Charles Leclerc being disqualified in China, Vasseur conceded that Ferrari requires “improvement everywhere”.

“[After] the result of today… we need to try to do a better job next week to extract the potential of the car and its operation,” he said.

“We have to improve everywhere. And at least we did a step forward compared to last week, at least on the operation [side] and we have to start from there.

“It’s not ideal at the start of the season for sure. But it’s still a long one… still 21 [races] to go.”