Will Leclerc grab his chance to win in Baku

It’s hard to believe that the roll-call of grand prix winners around the Baku City Circuit, including Nico Rosberg, Daniel Ricciardo and Valtteri Bottas, does not feature the driver who now has four pole positions in Azerbaijan to his name.

Charles Leclerc will lead the field away on Sunday’s formation lap for the fourth consecutive year, still in pursuit of his first victory in Baku.

The Ferrari driver’s confidence is as high as it has been all season, having beaten the McLarens of Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris to the chequered flag last time out in Monza. And with Norris well down the grid following a poorly-timed yellow flag in Q1, Leclerc only has one McLaren to concern himself with on Sunday. Especially as the two Red Bulls of Sergio Perez and Max Verstappen are fourth and sixth, respectively.

Although Leclerc has started from pole twice in 2024, this is only his second pole of the year earned by being the fastest in qualifying after Monaco – which he won. Given that Ferrari has tended to be stronger in race trim than qualifying, the pole winner is naturally feeling good heading into Sunday.

“I didn’t do a lap with high fuel, but it’s been a pretty strong point of the car this year,” Leclerc said after qualifying. “So I am not worried going into tomorrow’s race, but obviously we need to do things right.

“I’ll have to do a bit of homework tonight in order to get ready for tomorrow, but I’m not too worried that we’ll do the best job with our package and then we’ll see whether it’s good enough to win the race tomorrow or not.”

If he is able to win, there’s more than just a victory in the offering for him. Should Leclerc win and Norris fail to score a point, he will jump the McLaren driver to become the closest driver to Verstappen in the championship.

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Weather

Drivers will have plenty to concern themselves with over the course of Sunday’s race. However, rain will not be something they need to worry about.

As expected heading into the weekend, there is virtually zero risk of rain expected for the race, with bright, sunny skies likely to be overhead. Ambient temperatures around 26C means conditions for the race will be similar to that in qualifying.

The only difference, potentially, is higher winds. Southerly gusts of up to 42kph are predicted during the race, which could add an extra layer of challenge for drivers on top of what is already a low-grip circuit this weekend.

Start

At under 100 metres from pole position to the first corner, this is one of the shortest starts of the entire season. It’s little surprise, therefore, that the driver on pole often retains the lead over the opening lap.

In the seven races held in Baku to date, the driver on pole has led into turn two on six occasions. The only time they have not was when Perez beat Leclerc off the line in 2022, taking advantage of being on the inside line to take the lead.

However, this year, pole position could be even more of a benefit for Leclerc. The low grip offered by the unwashed streets could make the right side of the grid, which is the racing line, significantly grippier than the left side, where Piastri will start from.

But even if Leclerc stays ahead on the opening lap, it will be vital that he escapes beyond a second of whoever is behind him to avoid falling victim to DRS. Last year, he could not and was quickly picked off by Verstappen on lap three, then Perez on lap six.

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Strategy

Like the last round at Monza, strategy for Baku is a fairly simple affair. A one stop strategy, starting on mediums and fitting the hard tyres for the second stint.

That has been the case for the last two races here, but the wildcard threat posed by a sudden Safety Car cannot be ignored. Several teams have been proactive in their tyre usage through the weekend so far to cover that exact possibility.

“The two-stop only becomes credible if there is a Safety Car in the second half of the race,” said Pirelli’s Mario Isola. “That’s probably why many drivers have held back two sets of hard tyres for tomorrow afternoon.

“The first stop should come between laps 13 and 20 for those who opt to start on the mediums, while those who leave the grid on hards should pit between laps 32 and 38.”

The high degree of track evolution may also prove a factor, with the general low grip of the surface increasing the risk of tyre graining, which could catch some drivers out as it did in Monza last time out.

Overtaking

On paper, Baku should be a circuit where overtaking is more than possible. Boasting the longest single full-throttle section on the calendar and a DRS zone that boosts drivers up to over 340kph – which is 100m longer than it was last year – there’s fewer more obvious overtaking points in Formula 1 than down to turn one.

Such was the case last year, when Leclerc was swallowed up by the two Red Bull drivers along the pit straight with the aid of the RB19’s super-powered DRS. But there are other passing opportunities, with the second DRS straight exiting turn two making turn three the second-most popular passing spot on the circuit. Last year, Fernando Alonso showed that the brave can make moves into turn four as he mugged Carlos Sainz Jnr at the restart, while even the downhill run to turn 16 has been known to see overtakes in the past.

However, the volume of passes seems to be decreasing gradually over time. While the first ever race in 2016 produced over 60 on-track overtakes, with 50 in 2018 and 2019, last year’s race had the fewest ever at just 18. Lando Norris believes passing will be “worse than everyone thinks” on Sunday. But will he be proven right?

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Safety Cars

There is a perception that Baku is one of the true wildcard rounds of the season, where racing is often as chaotic as it is claustrophobic. This notoriety is largely born from the manic races in 2017 and 2018, that saw five Safety Car deployments and several collisions through the field.

However, Baku is actually a track that produces as many tame and uneventful races as it does wild and dramatic ones. Three of the seven races held at Baku have had zero Safety Car deployments, while the inaugural race in 2016 ran entirely without interruption.

The recent run of seven consecutive rounds without a Safety Car, and just a single lap of Virtual Safety Car, suggests that this may well be another quiet race. However, the proximity of the barriers and the limited run-offs available mean that it only takes one mistake by one driver to transform the race.

Such was the case last year when Nyck de Vries crashed out ten laps into the race, just as the single round of pit stops were beginning. The resulting Safety Car, which came moments after Verstappen pitted from the lead, allowed second-placed Perez to pit the very next lap and emerge ahead of his team mate, holding onto the lead until the chequered flag.

Any kind of intervention around a quarter or three-quarters of the way into the race could potentially make the difference between the winners and losers on Sunday.

One to watch

It seems that virtually every grand prix weekend, there is one driver from the top four teams who ends up starting deep in the back half of the grid for one reason or another.

This weekend, Norris is the one whose number has come up when fate cast its die. The driver who headed into the weekend with clear intention to try and take a major bite out of Verstappen’s championship lead with the active support of his team mate will instead have to start from down in 16th on the grid.

Norris himself, in trademark fashion, was pessimistic about his prospects of scoring decent points on Sunday, arguing that passing would be harder than many would expect even with the extended DRS zone. But Norris is fighting for a world championship for the first time in his career – at least, that is what his team believes. So now is the time for him to deliver the kind of ‘back against the wall’, fighting performance that any potential world champion would be expected to show in such a situation.

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Over to you

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