Pirelli expects “chain reaction” in Abu Dhabi season finale

Pirelli expects the one-stop strategy to become the favoured choice at today’s season-closing Abu Dhabi Grand Prix, but an early change for new tyre could lead to a “chain reaction.”

McLaren go in search of their first constructors’ title since 1998 today in Abu Dhabi. The British outfit heads into the race 21 points clear of rivals Ferrari, the only team still able to deny them constructors’ glory.

After Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri locked out the front row for the papaya team, McLaren has put itself in the box seat to achieve that feat today. The qualifying’s results backed up McLaren’s one-two finishes in Free Practices 2 and 3 despite the challenges posed by Ferrari and Red Bull in the early stages of qualifying.

The pole time of 1’22”595 was almost a second quicker than last year’s (1’23”595) and almost identical to the pre-event simulation of 1’22”6.

There were two Ferrari power units on the second row, the one fitted to Carlos Sainz’s car, his time of 1’22”824 just 20 thousandths off Piastri’s and the other in the back of Nico Hulkenberg’s Haas (1’22”886). However, the German driver was hit with a three-place grid penalty for a sporting infringement.

This was Norris’ ninth pole: his first came in Sochi in 2021 and the remaining eight were all this season. The Englishman and Max Verstappen therefore top the list for the most poles this year, but it’s the Dutchman who tomorrow will receive the 2024 Pole Position of the Year Award thanks to his additional three poles in Sprint Qualifying, compared to two for Norris.

Commenting on the qualifying, Pirelli’s motorsport director Mario Isola highlighted the fact that the field was separated by less than a second in the first qualifying segment.

“A very close qualifying, the closest of the year, given that in Q1 just 803 thousandths of a second covered all 20 drivers: only in Zeltweg was there a smaller gap from first to last (0”798) but that was on a track that is 963 metres shorter than this one.

“The close contest pushed the drivers to make the most of the Soft, which while delivering very good performance, only did so on the first flying lap.

“The track conditions were more or less stable throughout the sixty minutes of qualifying, so what made the difference was mainly the difference in grip levels between a new set and a used one, even if they had only done one timed lap.”

Pirelli brought the trio of the three softest compounds to the Yas Marina Circuit. But interestingly, the C3 made its first appearance of the weekend during the third free practice session. The final practice saw the Aston Martin pair of Fernando Alonso and Lance Stroll go through their usual scrubbing-in procedure.

The green team drivers also did the same with a set of Mediums, as did Lewis Hamilton and George Russell for Mercedes. The C4 was also used by Carlos Sainz (13 laps) and Max Verstappen (9 laps) while all the other drivers only ran the Soft, this compound being the only used throughout qualifying.

As far as the strategy is concerned, Pirelli continues to believe that a single-stop approach will turn out to be the fastest way to complete the 58-lap race. The Milan-based company estimates that the best way to start the race is to run the medium compound first before switching to the hard rubber, with a pit stop window between laps 18 and 24.

“Those starting further back might want to extend a first stint on the Hard, pitting between laps 29 and 35. There are however three factors that could open the door to a two-stop race: possibly greater degradation than we have seen so far, a neutralisation, or more plausible, drivers who find themselves in traffic deciding to pit early to try and exploit the clear advantage of having a new set of tyres for the first few laps after the stop.

“This could trigger a chain reaction, leading teams to switch to a two-stop strategy. That was the case last year, when all the teams with the exception of the Racing Bulls had kept two sets of new Hards,” explained Isola.