Pirelli expects one-stop strategy and moderate graining for the Mexico City Grand Prix

With the tyre degradation having been quite low over the course of the weekend, Formula One’s sole tyre supplier Pirelli expects the majority of the field to elect to pit only once at the Mexico City Grand Prix. F1Technical’s senior writer Balazs Szabo delivers his strategy guide for today’s race at the Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez.

It was not surprising to see many drivers struggle to get to grips with the tricky track in yesterday’s qualifying session as the Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez poses a unique set of challenges due its its altitude.

While McLaren’s Lando Norris excelled in the opening stages of qualifying, Ferrari’s Carlos Sainz caused a surprise in Q3, displaying impressive speed in the all-important last qualifying segment. The Spaniard completed two flying runs in Q3 and both of them would have been good enough to grab pole.

The Spaniard’s pole time of 1’15”946 is 1”220 quicker than last year’s time, which was set by his team-mate Charles Leclerc, who was fourth today in 1’16”265.

This was Sainz’s first pole of the season, the sixth of his career. It was the Scuderia’s 253rd pole from 1093 Grands Prix, the fifth at this track. Sainz is the seventh driver to secure the number one grid slot this season and Ferrari is the only team to have had both its drivers on pole this year.

Reflecting on yesterday’s qualifying session, Pirelli’s director of motorsport Mario Isola noted that it was “a very closely contested qualifying which, for the second year running, saw a Ferrari come out on top here in Mexico City.

“This all suggests that in tomorrow’s race the cars will also be evenly matched, especially when it comes to the fight between Ferrari, Red Bull and McLaren who so far, have shown they have the edge at this track.

“Today, we saw the times come down throughout, which proves that the track surface is still evolving. It will be the same again in tomorrow’s race, as the cars gradually rubber-in the track more and more.”

This weekend has been different to normal weekend even if the Mexico City Grand Prix does not feature the sprint format. With the second free practice session being given over almost entirely to the in-competition test for development of the 2025 tyres, the final practice on Saturday was very busy, with all 20 drivers focussing on performance runs, fortunately with no interruptions.

The drivers at Aston Martin, Ferrari, Red Bull, McLaren and Mercedes ran only the Soft compound, apart from scrubbing in laps from George Russell on a set of Mediums and from Fernando Alonso and Lance Stroll who each scrubbed in one set of Medium and one of Hard.

The C3 was also scrubbed in by Sauber which usually prefers this approach to its race preparation and today, the Hinwil team also scrubbed in a set of Mediums apart from the one used for the normal runs.

Previous races have shown fairly low tyre degradation at the Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez which often led to a one-stop strategy. According to Pirelli’s analysis carried out after the race simulation runs, today’s race will also see drivers build their strategy on a single-stop approach.

“Over the past two days, we have seen that the level of graining is significantly less than in the past, which favours the one-stop even more. Theoretically, the quickest strategy involves starting on the Medium before switching to the Hard between lap 25 and 32. Those who opt to start on the C3 should pit between lap 36 and 43 to switch to the C4.

“The Soft cannot be ruled out entirely: it could come into play as an option either at the start or towards the end, paired with the Hard, or maybe as a set to start on for those gambling on a two-stop to make the most of having two sets of Mediums available, which is on paper the most competitive of the three compounds brought to Mexico.”